000 AXNT20 KNHC 021714 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Mar 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Strong 1041 mb high pressure well north of the area is going to slide eastward across the north- western Atlantic over the next few days. Meanwhile, a persistent surface trough is stationary southeast of Bermuda between 40W and 50W. The tightening gradient between these two features is supporting strong NE winds north of 24N between 44W and 61W. Winds are locally near-gale force along 30N, and increase in speed north of area. The combination of large wind waves and northeasterly swell has already built seas to 12-15 ft north of 25N between 49W and 61W. Through Sun, seas will build to peak wave heights of 17 ft. Once the high has moved east of 45W on Sun night, a decreasing pressure gradient will allow both winds and seas to gradually subside early next week. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwestward from 11N16W to 02N29W. No significant convection is noted at this time, and no segments of the ITCZ are analyzed over the tropical Atlantic. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front draped across the Florida Panhandle extends to 1020 mb low pressure near 30N86W then continues across the N Gulf to 1016 mb low pressure near 27N91W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 27N between 83W and 90W. The latest surface observations indicated fresh to strong winds across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the frontal boundary and active convection. South of the front winds are out of the S, and north of the front winds are out of the NE. The south-east and south-central Gulf waters are experiencing gentle to moderate SE flow, with the western Gulf experiencing gentle N flow. Seas are 2-4 ft across the Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast, another low pressure area will form over north- central Mexico Sun, allowing the front to lift northward as a warm front over the northwest Gulf Mon. Expect moderate SE winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern Gulf Mon into Tue, between high pressure over the Carolinas and a trough over the southwest Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The previous Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia has expired. However, fresh to strong E winds and 8-10 ft seas continue in these waters. The remainder of the central Caribbean is characterized by 5-7 ft seas and mainly fresh trades, except off the southern coast of Hispaniola where trades are pulsing to fresh. In the eastern Caribbean, trades are moderate to fresh with 4-7 ft seas. In the western Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area over the western Atlantic will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through mid week. Fresh to strong NE winds in the north- central Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds late Sun. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information on a Significant Swell Event. A dissipating cold front extends from 31N49W to 25N65W. Scattered showers are along the front north of 28N. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail behind the front north of 20N to the Bahamas, where winds slow to moderate speeds and turn to a SE direction. Seas greater than 8 ft are north of a line from 31N48W to 18N63W to 31N78W. Ahead of the dissipating front, a sharp surface trough extends from 29N48W to 20N47W. Scattered showers are near the trough. In the eastern Atlantic, satellite scatterometer data shows fresh to strong E winds north of 20N east of 38W. Satellite altimeter captured 8-12 ft seas north of 15N east of 45W in NE swell. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas in open waters. For the forecast W of 55W, expect increasing NE winds and building seas northeast of the Bahamas and southeast of Bermuda into early next week between high pressure north of the area and a broad trough between 40W and 50W north of 21N. Looking ahead, the trough will dissipate and the high pressure will lift to the northeast, although fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will persist north of 25N and east of 65W into mid-week. $$ Mahoney