000 AXNT20 KNHC 011104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Mar 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a 1034 mb High off N Carolina and a 1008 mb Colombian Low will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south-central Caribbean into early next week. These winds will pulse to gale-force off the northwestern Colombia coast during the nighttime and early morning hours tonight and Sat. Seas near and just downwind of these strongest winds are expected to reach 11 to 13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for additional information. Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A very strong high pressure of 1040 mb is well north of the area over the northern Atlantic just northwest of the Azores. A tight pressure gradient between this high and a broad surface trough across northwestern Africa is resulting in gale-force winds in the Meteo-France Marine Zone Agadir, near the Morocco coast. These winds are forecast to persist through at least this morning. Please read the latest High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Guinea coast, then extends southwestward across 06N20W to 02N31W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05S to 05N between 09W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to a 1013 mb low pressure in the NW Gulf from where a dissipating cold front extends to Tampico, Mexico offshore waters. Moderate to fresh SE winds are over the NE gulf while NE winds of the same magnitude are ongoing W of the frontal boundary and low in the NW gulf. Seas are moderate in the northern basin and slight elesewhere. Otherwise, scattered showers are ocurring over the NE basin N of 27N. For the forecast, the low will move NE out of the north-central Gulf today. In response, the eastern part of the front will retreat northward as a warm front, while the western portion will remain generally stationary into the weekend. The boundary will then dissipate over northern waters Sun. Over the weekend, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will build weakly into the basin, bringing fairly tranquil conditions to the basin for the start of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details about a gale warning. A tight gradient between a 1034 mb high off N Carolina and a 1008 Colombian Low sustains fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft across the central basin, including waters near the Windward Passage but outside the Gale Warning area. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are seen at the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, high pressure centered N of the region will build southward and strengthen through Sat night, causing fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage to expand and dominate much of the central and eastern basin. Winds will pulse to gale-force nightly offshore Colombia through Sat night while fresh to strong NE winds through the Atlantic passages will prevail through Sun. Winds and seas will begin to gradually diminish over the eastern Caribbean Sun through Mon as Atlantic high pressure retreats to the NE. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds are forecast off Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras Sun through Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a gale warning in the eastern Atlantic. Former stationary front has transitioned to a cold front that extends from 30N64W to 28N72W where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to strong NNE winds are behind this front along with 8-9 ft seas. A strong Azores High extends a ridge a covers most of the E subtropical waters while a broad trough lingers over the central Atlantic subtropical waters. For the forecast W of 55W, a surface trough along 55W N of 23N will drift E through the weekend, with some weak low pressure centers possibly developing along it at times, inducing strong to near gale-force NNE winds to the west of the trough axis. The cold front will move E across the northernmost waters, crossing the waters N of 28N through today, with some strong NE to E winds behind it. Winds and seas will diminish for the start of next week. $$ Ramos