000 AXNT20 KNHC 290003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Feb 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the north Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in Northwest Africa is bringing gale-force northerly winds near the coast of Morocco. These winds will continue through late tonight in the marine zone Agadir. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details. Caribbean Gale Warning: Very strong high pressure centered well north of the area will continue to move slowly northeastward into the far North Atlantic during the few days. Strong high pressure will build late this week over the eastern United States. The pressure gradient between persistent low pressure in northwest Colombia and the associated ridge will result in fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. Winds will pulse nightly to gale speeds off northwest Colombia through Fri night. Seas with these winds are forecast to build to 8-11 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends extends from extreme northern Sierra Leone southwestward to 02N20W to below the Equator at 25W and continues to 02S30W and to 01S38W. The ITCZ is not present for the 1800 UTC surface analysis. No significant convection is noted. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from a 1017 mb low in northeast Texas, southwestward to offshore the coast near Galveston, and continues to 28N96W and to inland the coast just north of Brownsville. High pressure ridging extends from strong high pressure that is centered over north Atlantic southwestward to South Florida. Strong northeast winds are west of the front with building seas of 7-10 ft. Scattered showers are north of 27N and west of 95W. A northwest to southeast oriented trough is inland Mexico from 24N98W to 21N98W to low pressure of 1011 mb near 19N96W and continues southeastward to near 18N92W. Seas are 5-7 ft over the northwest part of the basin and 2-4 ft elsewhere, except 3-5 ft in the west-central Gulf and 4-6 ft in the waters southwest of Louisiana. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to just N of Tampico, Mexico, Thu, then stall and gradually dissipate through Fri. Fresh northeast to east winds are expected north of the front. Over the weekend, tr high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will build into the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning for the waters near the coast of Colombia. Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas prevail in the south- central Caribbean offshore of Colombia and south of 13N. Fresh to strong trades prevail over the remainder of the central Caribbean between 67W and 80W, including the entrance of the Windward Passage, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also within the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevails For the forecast, high pressure centered well N of the area will strengthen into the weekend, causing the fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage to expand and dominate much of the central and eastern basin as well as the Gulf of Honduras. NE to E winds will pulse to gale-force nightly offshore Colombia through at least Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale-force wind warning in the East Atlantic. A dissipating stationary front passes through 31N56W to 22N61W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue east of the boundary to 52W and north of 21N. Strong high pressure centered well NE of Bermuda dominates the Atlantic basin, supporting fresh to strong winds and 6 to 8 ft seas north of 20N and east of the front to 40W. West of the front, moderate to fresh trades support 6 to 8 ft seas south of 26N and west of 61W to the southern Bahamas. Southerly flow offshore Florida is increasing to fresh to strong speeds ahead of an incoming cold front, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Farther east, strong high pressure supports prevailing fresh to strong trades north of 25N between 40W and 30W, where seas are 9 to 11 ft. Outside of the gale force winds, fresh to strong NE-E winds are north of 16N and east of 30W, where seas are 9 to 12 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the high pressure centered well NE of Bermuda will shift east through Thu, but will be replaced by another high pressure moving offshore the Mid-Atlantic United States. Between the two highs, a cold front will sink into the NW waters early Thu morning, then stall along 29N Fri. The boundary will then gradually dissipate into the weekend. Along and north of the front, strong NE to E winds are expected into Sat. $$ Aguirre/Mora