000 AXNT20 KNHC 281754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Feb 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...METEO-FRANCE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... The current METEO-FRANCE forecast consists of: gale-force winds, until 29/0300 UTC, in the marine zone AGADIR; until 28/2100 UTC in the marine zone CANARIAS; and everything was ending at 28/1200 UTC in the marine zone TARFAYA. Please, refer to the METEO-FRANCE forecast, at: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2, for details. Rough to very rough seas are from 18N northward from 25W eastward. Strong to near gale-force NE winds in general are elsewhere from 20N northward from 25W eastward. Strong NE winds are from 24N northward between 25W and 35W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Expect gale-force NE winds, and rough seas, tonight, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Elsewhere: from 10N to 14N between 70W and 79W including in the Gulf of Venezuela, strong to near gale- force NE winds, and rough seas. The gale-force winds will slow down during the daytime hours of Thursday. The gale-force wind speeds will return to the area on Thursday night. Expect for the rest of today until tonight: strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, from 10N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains of Guinea, to 02N20W, crossing the Equator along 24W, to 02S30W 02S35W 01S39W. No ITCZ is present. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N southward between 42W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A ridge passes through south Florida, into the central sections, and to the west central Gulf of Mexico. A NW-to-SE oriented Mexico coastal plains surface trough is along 25N100W, 20N97W, to the northern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A cold front is moving through Texas, toward the Gulf coast. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the coastal waters of Louisiana and Texas. Moderate seas cover the areas that are from SE Louisiana, 88W/89W, westward. The comparatively highest values of moderate are in the NW quadrant. Slight seas are elsewhere. Broad moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. As high pressure shifts further E into the Atlantic, a cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Fresh S winds and patchy fog are expected over the northern Gulf ahead of this front. The cold front will stall by Thu night from N of Tampa Bay to just S of the mouth of the Rio Grande, the lift N and inland as a warm front by the weekend. A weak N to S aligned trough will meander across the W Gulf Fri through Sat before dissipating. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the coastal waters of Colombia. Expect for the rest of today until tonight: strong to near gale- force NE to E winds, and rough seas, from 10N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are in the NW quadrant. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the SW quadrant of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to rough seas are from 17N southward between 70W and 81W. The comparatively highest sea heights correspond to the areas of the comparatively fastest wind speeds, that are in the coastal waters of Colombia. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 81W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 28/1200 UTC, are: 0.54 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. High pressure centered well N of the area will strengthen late this week and weekend, causing fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage to expand and dominate much of the central and eastern basin as well as the Gulf of Honduras. NE to E winds will pulse to gale-force nightly offshore Colombia through at least Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning in the METEO-FRANCE marine zones. A stationary front passes through 31N56W 24N60W. A surface trough continues from 24N60W, to 20N65W, and from the NE Dominican Republic to NW Haiti. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 23N northward within 180 nm to the east of the stationary front. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N northward between 40W and 70W, and from 18N to 20N between 60W and the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 60 nm of the stationary front 28N northward; and from 24N southward between 64W and 73W to the north of the surface trough. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is on either side of the stationary front/trough feature. A surface ridge extends from a 42N48W 1043 mb high pressure center, through 31N67W, to 28N72W, across the NW Bahamas, to south Florida. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east of the boundary. A 1037 mb high pressure center is near 38N27W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the areas that are from 10N northward between 30W and 40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N northward between 20W and 40W. Moderate to rough seas are from 19N to 29N between 30W and 50W; and from 20N to 25N between 65W and 72W. Moderate seas cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 19N northward between 35W and 45W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are from 29N northward from 70W westward. Mostly fresh to some moderate anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the areas that are to the west of the stationary front/surface trough boundary. Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds are elsewhere from 06N northward between 35W and 50W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A dissipating stationary front extends from 28N55W to just NE of the Dominican Republic. High pressure centered NE of Bermuda extends a ridge SW to Central Florida. This ridge will shift east through Thu, but be replaced by another high pressure moving offshore the Mid-Atlantic United States. Between the two highs, a cold front will sink into the NW waters Thu morning, then stall from just W of Bermuda to near Daytona Beach, Florida, Fri, before lifting N as a warm front into Fri night. N of this front, strong NE winds can be expected into the weekend. $$ mt/sk