000 AXNT20 KNHC 271034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Feb 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between strong high pressure northeast of the Azores combined with low pressure across the Mediterranean Sea has induced gale force northerly winds near the coast of Morocco that will persist through Tue night. Meteo- France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds in the eastern portions of the marine zones Agadir, Tarfaya, and Canarias. Expect northerly gales from 28N to 31N, between 13W and the coast of Morocco. Seas will build to the range of 15-20 ft by late Tue between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details. Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to move slowly northeastward and strengthen modestly over the next few days. The pressure gradient between persistent low pressure in northwest Colombia and the associated ridge will create an expanding area of fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. Winds will increase each night, and are expected to reach minimal gale-force Tue night within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas there will build to 10-11 ft during this time. Winds will remain below gale-force during the day then increase again to minimal gale-force again Wed night and Thu night. Peak seas will build to 9-13 ft each night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coast of Africa near 09N13.5W and continues southwestward to near 00N23W. The ITCZ begins near 00N23W and extends southwest to 04S26W to near 02S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection dots the waters from 02.5N southward to beyond the Equator between 14W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1027 mb is centered near Bermuda and extends a ridge southwestward to central Florida and then westward across the middle Gulf along 26N to south Texas. Meanwhile, broad low pressure is over the central U.S. and northern Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure is supporting moderate to fresh south to southeasterly flow over most of the basin W of 85W this morning, with strongest winds across the SE Texas coastal waters. Seas have built to 5-7 ft across NW portions and are 2-4 ft elsewhere. This return flow across the basin is transporting light smoke from numerous agricultural fires across Mexico across much of the basin, with smoke most dense and producing hazy conditions within 120 nm of the coast from Merida to Brownsville. The basin is otherwise precipitation free this morning. For the forecast, the ridge across the Gulf this morning will shift E-NE through Wed, allowing a cold front to enter the NW Gulf midday Wed. Ahead of the front, fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will prevail over the western Gulf today, then expand into eastern portions Tue night into Wed. The cold front will sink into the northern Gulf late Wed through Thu, then stall from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Thu afternoon, before lifting N Thu night into Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning for the waters near the coast of Colombia starting Tue night. A weakening stationary front extends from along the north coast of Hispaniola west-southwestward across the Windward Passage where it become ill-defined. Broken low clouds and scattered light showers associated with the remnants of this former front extends from the waters north of Jamaica southwest to the NE coast of Honduras. Overnight ASCAT satellite wind data revealed fresh northeast winds over the Windward Passage and fresh to strong winds over the waters S of 13.5N off of Colombia. High pressure is centered near Bermuda, north of the stationary front. The pressure gradient affecting the Caribbean basin is producing moderate trade winds across the eastern basin, and gentle to moderate trades NW portions. Seas are 6 to 9 ft offshore of Colombia in the strong winds, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere central portions. For the forecast, the lingering stationary front just north of the NE Caribbean will begin to drift W today and gradually dissipate by Wed. High pressure across the western Atlantic will move E-NE through Thu night and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central portions of the basin and through the Atlantic Passages Tue night through Thu. Strong trade winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night, Tue night through Thu night. Strong high pressure across the western Atlantic will build southward toward the basin Thu night through Sat to freshen the trade wind flow across north- central and eastern portions. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning. A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N51W southwestward to 22N60W to the northern coast of the Hispaniola, and across the Windward Passage. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds and scattered light to moderate showers are noted within 180 nm southeast of the front to the south of 25N, and extend across the Virgin Islands and into the north coast of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 210 nm E of the front to the N of 25N. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are ahead of the front north of 25N and east to near 42W. The pressure gradient between 1027 mb high pressure near Bermuda and the front is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of 25N. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail across this area from the front to the SE Bahamas. Elsewhere within 180 nm W of the front, fresh NE winds prevail with seas 7 to 8 ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere W of the front the Florida, with seas of 3-6 ft in N-NE swell. The eastern Atlantic is dominated by strong high pressure of 1037 mb analyzed well north of the area near 41N23W. A ridge extends from this high southwestward to 30N48W. Between 52W and the Lesser Antilles, winds are gentle to moderate in speed with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate trade winds and seas 7 to 9 ft are generally east of 52W to 30W and south of 20N. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 8 to 11 ft seas continue north of 20N and between 21W-45W. East of 21W, fresh to locally strong northeast winds and seas of 10 to 11 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the remnants of the stationary front will begin to drift W later today, and gradually dissipate through Wed. High pressure near Bermuda will slide NE across the W Atlantic through Wed night. The next cold front will sink into the NW waters early Thu, reach from Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, Florida Thu evening, then begin to drift northward to the W of 70W Fri through Sat. Strong high pressure across the NW Atlantic will build southward across the regional waters during this time and produce strong easterly winds E of 73W Fri night through Sat. $$ Stripling