000 AXNT20 KNHC 261748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Feb 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between strengthening high pressure NE of the Azores combined with low pressure across the Mediterranean Sea will induce gale force northerly winds near the coast of Morocco Mon night through Tue night. Meteo- France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds in the eastern portions of the marine zones Agadir, Tarfaya, and Canarias. Expect northerly gales from 28N to 31N, between 13W and the coast of Morocco. Seas will build to 15 to 20 ft on Tue between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details. Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure across the NW Bahamas early this morning will slide northeastward and strengthen modestly over the next few days. The pressure gradient between persistent low pressure over NW Colombia and the associated ridge will create an expanding area of fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. Winds will increase each night, and are expected to reach minimal gale-force Tue night within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas there will build to 10-11 ft during the period of gales. Winds are then expected to reach gale-force again Wed night and Thu night, with peak seas building to 10-12 ft each night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits western Africa near 09N13W and extends to 01N24W. The ITCZ begins farther south near 04S26W and extends to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1022 mb is over the NW Bahamas and extends a ridge westward to the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate southerly flow and 2 to 4 ft seas are west of 90W. Light to gentle SE flow and 1 to 3 ft seas are east of 9)W. Numerous agricultural fires across Mexico produce light smoke across much of the near and offshore waters within 180 nm of the coast from Merida to Brownsville. For the forecast, the high pressure over the NW Bahamas will slide NE across the Atlantic through Wed. Fresh to locally stong southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf today through tonight, then expand into eastern portions Tue through Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Wed afternoon. This front is expected to reach from the Florida Big Bend region to near Tampico, Mexico by midday Thu, then stall and lift northward Thu night and Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on the Gale Warning offshore Colombia for Tuesday Night. The weakening front extending across the NW Caribbean Sea has dissipated. Moderate NE winds are noted in the lee of Cuba, becoming light to gentle over the remainder of the NW Caribbean Sea. Seas are 2 to 4 ft. A surface trough extends from E Puerto Rico to the NW Colombian basin. Gentile to moderate easterlies are east of the trough, where seas are 2 to 4 ft, and mainly moderate NE winds are noted west of the trough with 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh winds are also noted exiting the Mona Passage, south of the Dominican Republic and offshore northern Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure will move ENE across the western Atlantic tonight into Thu night and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central portions of the basin and through the Atlantic Passages. Strong trade winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night, Tue night through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on the Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning A cold front extends from 31N53W southwestward to the northern coast of the Dominican Republic. Scattered showers prevail within 240 nm east of the boundary, north of 24N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass revealed fresh southerly winds ahead of the front, north of 27N and west of 48W. High pressure center of 1013 mb is west of the front, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds south of 24N. 4 to 6 ft seas are from 22N to 27N between 50W and 68W. 6 to 9 ft seas are north of 27N between 57W and 64W. 3 to 5 ft seas are elsewhere west of the front. The eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1037 mb high pressure centered near 43N25W. A ridge extends from this high pressure southwestward to 23N55W. Between 48W and the Lesser Antilles, winds are moderate with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate trade winds and seas exceeding 7 to 9 ft are generally east of 48W and south of 20N. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and 8 to 11 ft seas prevail between north of 20N and east of 45W to 25W. East of 25W, fresh to locally strong NE winds, and 10 to 12 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in westerly swell following the cold front will gradually subside through tonight. The front will stall and weaken from 27N55W to just N of the Mona Passage by Tue. High pressure currently over the NW Bahamas will slide NE across the W Atlantic into Wed night. The next cold front will sink into the NW waters Thu and reach from 30N55WW to 28N70W to central Florida Fri morning. $$ Mora