000 AXNT20 KNHC 261030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Feb 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between strengthening high pressure NE of the Azores combined with low pressure across the Mediterranean Sea will induce gale force northerly winds near the coast of Morocco Mon night through Tue night. Meteo-France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds in the eastern portions of the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Expect northerly gales from 28N to 31N, between 13W and the coast of Morocco. Seas will build to 15 to 20 ft on Tue between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details. Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure across the NW Bahamas early this morning will slide northeastward and strengthen modestly over the next few days. As it does this, the pressure gradient between persistent low pressure over NW Colombia and the associated ridge will create an expanding area of fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. Winds will increase each night, and are expected to reach minimal gale-force Tue night within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas there will build to 10-11 ft during the period of gales. Winds are then expected to reach gale-force again Wed night and Thu night, with peak seas building to 10-12 ft each night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits western Africa near 10N14W and extends to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 01N26W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is depicted from 00N to 04N between 07W and 18W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1022 mb is over the NW Bahamas and extends a ridge westward to the NE coast of Mexico. Fair skies dominate the Gulf tonight. Numerous agricultural fires across Mexico are producing light smoke across much of the near and offshore waters within 180 nm of the coast from Merida to Brownsville. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas 2 to 3 ft prevail north of 23N and east of 90W including the Straits of Florida. Moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are present north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Over the far western Gulf, moderate to locally fresh SE to S return flow has developed, with seas to 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, the high pressure over the NW Bahamas will slide NE across the Atlantic through Wed. Fresh southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf today through tonight, then expand into eastern portions Tue through Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Wed afternoon. This front is expected to reach from the Florida Big Bend region to S Texas midday Thu, then stall and lift northward Thu night and Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening cold front extends from the central Atlantic southwestward across western Haiti to the NE coast of Honduras. A surface trough is just SE of the front and extends across the Virgin Islands to 17N67W. Scattered light showers are across the western basin, between the front and 19N. Scattered moderate shower activity is across the Atlantic waters of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and extends into the adjacent Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are behind the front, over portions of the NW Caribbean. In the south- central Caribbean, fresh NE to E winds prevail, with locally strong winds off the coast of Colombia. Seas in this area are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate, except fresh winds through and downwind of the Atlantic Passages. Seas of 4 to 5 ft generally prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will sink slowly SE through Mon night and gradually stall from the NE coast of the Dominican Republic to Jamaica before dissipating Tue. High pressure will move E-NE across the western Atlantic Mon night through Thu and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central portions of the basin and through the Atlantic Passages. Strong trade winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night, Tue night through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N54W southwestward across western Haiti and into the western Caribbean. A pre-frontal trough is 120-150 nm ahead of the front, and extends across the Virgin Islands into the extreme NE Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 21N within 120 nm E of the pre- frontal trough. Scattered moderate showers are also noted across the Atlantic coastal waters of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, to the west of the trough. Fresh winds are E of the pre- frontal trough to 48W, to the 28N. Seas there are 7 to 9 ft. Behind the front, moderate to fresh NW to W winds prevail between the front and 65W and to north of 29N. Elsewhere west of the front, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is developing. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in westerly swell to the N of 26N between 68W and the front, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. The eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1035 mb high pressure centered near 45N26W. A ridge extends from this high pressure southwestward to 22N57W. Between 48W and the Lesser Antilles, winds are moderate with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh trade winds and seas exceeding 7-9 ft are generally east of 48W. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and 8 to 11 ft seas prevail between 20W and 35W, from 13N to 30N. North of 20N and east of 25W, fresh to locally strong NE winds and 10 to 12 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall and weaken from 26.5N55W to the N coast of Dominican Republic by Tue. High pressure offshore of the Florida coast will slide NE across the W Atlantic through Wed. The next cold front will sink into the NW waters Thu and reach from 31N54W to 28N70W to the NE Florida coastal waters Fri morning. $$ Stripling