000 AXNT20 KNHC 251756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Feb 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The current METEO-FRANCE, for the outlook section, which covers the 24-hour period that follows the initial 36-hour forecast, consists of: the threat of northerly near gale or gale in the following marine zones: Agadir, and Tarfaya. Please, refer to the METEO-FRANCE forecast, at: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2, for details. Rough to very rough seas are from 23N northward from 20W eastward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N09W, to the Equator along 20W, and to the Equator along 32W. No ITCZ is present. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N southward between 47W and 52W. Isolated moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 08N southward from 47W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Florida east coast along 28N. The front continues to SE Louisiana, and SW Louisiana. Few clouds accompany this front. Some low level clouds are from 26N southward from 90W eastward; and in the coastal waters of Mexico from 25N southward, and from 20N southward. Fresh to some strong westerly winds are from 28N northward with the cold front. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are from 90W eastward. Mostly moderate to some fresh anticyclonic winds are from 90W westward. Slight seas cover the Gulf of Mexico. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 28N91W. A 1023 mb high pressure centered in the central Gulf will drift east into Mon, before sliding into the Atlantic. Fresh southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf tonight through Mon night, then expand into eastern portions Tue through Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Wed, then reach from the Florida Big Bend region to near Veracruz, Mexico, by Thu morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the Bahamas near 23N74W, beyond 21N78W in Cuba, to northern Belize, and to the eastern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough passes through Haiti, to the coast of Nicaragua near 13N. is about 90 nm to the ESE of the cold front from 24N northward, and then about 250 nm to the ESE of the cold front from 15N to 24N. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are to the northwest of the line that runs from the western sections of the Dominican Republic to southern Nicaragua. Other similar clouds and precipitation are: from 14N southward from 76W westward, and from 14N northward between 60W and 73W. Gradual anticyclonic moderate to fresh wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from Jamaica westward. The winds are from the NW in the NW corner of the area. The wind flow is from the N to NE from Honduras southward and from Jamaica westward. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE to E winds are in the remainder of the area. Moderate seas are from 17N southward between 70W and 80W. Slight seas are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue across the Caribbean waters within 90 nm of Colombia into Mon night, strongest at nights. A cold front extends from the Windward Passage to Belize and will reach from Haiti to the Gulf of Honduras tonight. The front will then stall Mon from Dominican Republic to Jamaica and gradually dissipate into Tue. High pressure will move E-NE across the western Atlantic Mon night into Thu and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central portions of the basin and through the Atlantic Passages. Gales are possible each night offshore of Colombia Tue night through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The first cold front passes through 31N62W 24N70W, to 23N74W in the Bahamas, and beyond 21N78W in Cuba. A surface trough is about 90 nm to the ESE of the cold front from 24N northward, and then about 250 nm to the ESE of the cold front from 15N to 24N. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from 24N northward between 50W and the front. A second cold front passes through 31N69W 28N75W, beyond the Florida coast along 28N. Strong westerly winds are from 27N northward between the first cold front and the second cold front. Rough seas are from 26N northward between 60W and 70W. Rough seas are to the north of the second cold front between the second front and 77W. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 60W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward from 50W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 25/1200 UTC, are: 0.90 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the areas that are between Africa and 50W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds are from 14N northward between 20W and 50W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, is from 14N northward between 20W and 30W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 60W eastward. A 1033 mb high pressure center is near 33N28W. A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 33N36W. Rough seas from 11N northward between 20W and 30W; and from 11N northward between 30W and 31N36W 22N40W 23N45W 11N44W. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 60W eastward. Strong NE winds are from 16N to 26N from 24W eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 26N northward between 14W and 24W; and from 20N to 27N between 30W and 37W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 13N northward between 14W and 25W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are elsewhere from 02N to 29N between 25W and 53W. Fresh NE winds also are from 10N to 13N between 55W and 60W. A cold front extends from 31N62W southwestward through the SE Bahamas to the Windward Passage. Strong SW winds will prevail N of 26N and within 180 E of the cold front through this evening. Behind the front and N of 27N, strong NW winds will prevail through this evening. Rough to very rough seas in westerly swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far S as 24N today. The front will reach from 28N55W to Haiti Mon morning then gradually stall and weaken from 26N55W to the NE coast of Dominican Republic Tue. High pressure will exit Florida Mon and slide E-NE across the W Atlantic through early Wed. The next cold front will sink into the NW waters Thu. $$ mt/sk