000 AXNT20 KNHC 222102 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Feb 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on Fri. Gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly N of 29N between 65W and 80W, Fri through Sat. Rough to very rough seas will follow the front. All marine interests in the areas must be cautious and plan accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas that is issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 05W and 24W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is found W of 94W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except for over the SE Gulf where gentle winds are noted. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the ridge will shift eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas coast tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds are ahead of the front over the western Gulf. The front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Brownsville, Texas by Fri morning, and will be over the south waters on Sat morning, extending across the Straits of Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be expected behind the front with moderate seas. Surface high pressure will build in the wake of the front late Sat through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail between 66W and 82W. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the SW Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will return to the south- central Caribbean by Fri night and persist through the weekend, but mainly at night. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean by Sat afternoon, and extend from eastern Cuba to the coast of Quintana Roo, Mexico near 19N87.5W on Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N57W to 24N58W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the front. Fresh to strong winds, locally near gale, and rough seas to 10 ft are noted on either side of the front. A 1007 mb low is centered near 29N65W, with a trough extending SW to near the southern Bahamas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm N semicircle of the low. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft, are noted within 120 nm W of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong, are between the trough and the cold front. Light to gentle winds are W of 75W. Elsewhere W of 60W, seas of 6-8 ft prevail. Farther east, high pressure prevails across the waters N of 20N. Fresh to strong winds are noted from 10N to 22N between 22W and 35W, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere E of 60W. Seas of 6-9 ft generally prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from 31N56W to 20N58W by Fri morning while dissipating. A frontal trough will remain in the area on Sat, and drift westward toward the Leeward Islands on Sun. Winds and seas associated with this system will improve by Fri night into Sat. A strong cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on Fri. Gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly N of 29N and W of 65W, Fri through Sat. Rough to very rough seas will follow the front, forecast to extend from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida on Sat, and from 31N62W to eastern Cuba on Sun. $$ AL