000 AXNT20 KNHC 202101 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Feb 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1010 mb low pressure system is centered near 31N70W. As the low moves northward, it will deepen and bring brief period of gale force winds N of 29N between 70W and 73W tonight. Meanwhile, rough to very rough seas will propagate into the northern waters west of the low tonight and spread south and east through the end of the week. Seas of 12 ft and higher will prevail N of 29N between 67W and 73W tonight through Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ passes off the coast of Africa near 05N08W to 01N32W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N E of 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1027 mb high near 26N91W. Gentle to moderate winds are over the far SE Gulf. Light anticyclonic flow is in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range in the far SE Gulf, and 3 ft or less elsewhere. For the forecast, the area of high pressure will move eastward by midweek as a cold front approaches the western Gulf. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong southerly return flow can be expected in the western Gulf Wed night into Tue morning. Seas will peak near 9 ft. These winds and seas will diminish late Thu as the cold front moves across the Gulf Thu night through Sat. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be expected behind the front with moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to western Panama. Fresh to strong winds are within 90 nm west of the front S of 18N. Seas in this area are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are elsewhere W of the front. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere E of the front. For the forecast, the front will move east through Wed before weakening by Thu in the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front from off SE Cuba and SW Hispaniola to Costa Rica through Thu morning. Low pres N of the area has loosened the pressure gradient across the central and eastern Caribbean waters, with fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean expected to diminish by Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic waters. A 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 31N70W. Associated cold front extends from the low to near 27N70W to eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the front N of 26N. Fresh to strong winds are within 90 nm W semicircle of the low as well as within 90 nm east of the front N of 26N. Elsewhere W of the front, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas of 7-10 ft are found W of the front. Farther east, high pressure prevails. Winds E of the front are mainly in the moderate to fresh range. Seas of 7-10 ft are sound E of 50W, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of discussion waters E of the front. For the forecast W of 55W aside from the gales, the area of low pressure will lift north of area this evening. The cold front associated with the low pressure will extend from 31N65W to Hispaniola on Wed morning and from 31N59W to the Anegada Passage Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected along this front through the end of the week. $$ AL