619 AXNT20 KNHC 200523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Feb 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system is centered about 240 nm NE of the N Bahamas. A tight pressure gradient between the low and high pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico will support near-gale force winds with gusts to gale force tonight offshore SE Florida. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are expected. Winds will diminish below gale force by the early morning hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 07N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 00N40W. Scattered showers are noted from 03S-06N between 27W-44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1025 mb over the north-central Gulf of Mexico dominates the basin. Fresh northerly winds are noted in the SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. Seas are 3 to 5 ft south of 26N and 3 ft or less north of 26N. Seas to 6 ft continue within the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, high pres across the Gulf of Mexico will move eastward by midweek. This will bring fresh to strong southerly return flow to the western Gulf Wed night. These winds will diminish Thu as a frontal boundary approaches the NW Gulf. The cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Fri, and shift rapidly southward across the Gulf waters through Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, through eastern Cuba to the south-central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted offshore Honduras and Nicaragua. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted offshore Colombia and NW Venezuela. Elsewhere winds are moderate to fresh. Moderate seas prevail over the basin, with the highest seas offshore Colombia. For the forecast, the cold front will shift eastward through midweek before weakening. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough seas off Nicaragua and Costa Rica will follow the front through Wed night. Low pres N of the area has loosened the pressure gradient across the Caribbean waters, with fresh to strong winds mainly over the south central Caribbean. Areal coverage of the fresh to locally strong winds in the south central Caribbean will further decrease through the middle of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the ongoing Gale Warning offshore SE Florida. A cold front extends from the 1013 mb low pressure described in the special features section above. The cold front extends from 29N73W to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong westerly winds are behind the front south of 27N. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are noted behind the low and north of the low for the remainder of the AOR to 31N. Fresh to strong southerly winds are ahead of the low north of 27N to 65W. 8 to 10 ft seas are between Florida and the Bahamas, and north of 27N and west of 65W. Elsewhere, a subtropical ridge extending from near the Azores to the Greater Antilles supports fresh easterly winds across most of the Atlantic waters east of 50W, where seas are 8 to 11 ft. Fresh to strong easterly winds are north of 24N and east of 30W, with seas up to 12 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure N of the Bahamas will lift north of 31N by Tue night. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas north of the low will diminish overnight. A cold front extends from the low to E Cuba. The front will continue to shift eastward through the week. A broad area of fresh to strong northwest winds will diminish over the waters northeast of the Bahamas by midweek. $$ Mora