000 AXNT20 KNHC 192254 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Feb 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Complex low pressure system is centered over the northern Bahamas. Near-gale to gale-force winds will prevail N of the low N of 30N between 70W and 73W through this evening. Seas in this area range from 8 to 12 ft. Winds and seas will gradually subside tonight. Marine interests in the above areas need to be cautious and plan accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 07N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 00N40W. Scattered showers are noted from 03S-06N between 27W-44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Besides the surface trough with related gales and weather mentioned in the Special Features section, a surface ridge extends south-southeastward from a 1022 mb high off Galveston, Texas to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present at the northwestern and north- central Gulf. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas dominate the west-central and northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong W to NW to N winds and seas of 10 to 13 ft in large northerly swell prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits. For the forecast, high pres across the Gulf of Mexico will move eastward by midweek, bringing fresh to strong southerly return flow to the western Gulf Wed night. These winds will diminish Thu as a frontal boundary approaches the NW Gulf. The cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Fri, and shift rapidly southward across the Gulf waters through Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, through eastern Cuba to the northern coast of Costa Rica. Moderate to rough seas, and fresh to strong NW winds are to the northwest of the cold front. The comparatively highest seas, rough, are in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh NW winds are to the northwest of the cold front. Strong SE winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Venezuela between 65W and 68W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are elsewhere from 75W eastward. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The comparatively highest sea heights, close to rough, are between Haiti and Colombia. Moderate seas cover the rest of the areas that are from 80W eastward. Slight seas are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the cold front will shift eastward through midweek before weakening. Fresh to strong N winds off Nicaragua and Costa Rica will follow the front through midweek. Low pres N of the area has loosened the pressure gradient across the Caribbean waters, with fresh to strong winds mainly over the south central Caribbean. Areal coverage of the fresh to locally strong winds in the south central Caribbean will further decrease through the middle of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about the ongoing Gale Warning. A frontal boundary curves southwestward from a 1011 mb low southwest of Bermuda near 31N67W to a 1007 mb low over the northern Bahamas, then continues to beyond eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near these features mainly W of 68W. Outside the Gale Warning, fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are found near the lows/frontal boundary, W of 62W. A broad Atlantic ridge stretching southwestward across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near 38N25W. Rough to very rough seas prevail E of 58W, with highest seas mainly N of 28N between 23W-30W. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail across this area. For the forecast west of 55W, Low pressure N of the Bahamas will lift north of 31N by Tue night. Gale force winds, and rough seas, north of the low will continue through early this evening, with conditions starting to improve tonight. The cold front that extends from the low to E Cuba will continue to shift eastward through the week. A broad area of fresh to strong northwest winds will diminish over the waters northeast of the Bahamas by midweek. $$ ERA