000 AXNT20 KNHC 171127 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Feb 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight gradient between 1023 mb high pressure located over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean Sea is supporting gale-force winds of up to 35 kt offshore Colombia along with seas to 11 ft. These winds are forecast to diminish to just below gale-force around 12Z this morning. Afterward, strong trade winds will persist through early next week across this area. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front just inland the Texas coast will move into the NW Gulf this morning, with strong to near gale force winds in the wake of the front. The cold front will reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon and from near Naples, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula early Sun. The front will push east of the basin by Sun night. Weak low pressure will develop along the front in the NW Gulf today and track eastward across the basin during the weekend. The strong to near gale winds will spread across most of basin through Sun night. Gale force winds will develop behind the cold front offshore of Tampico, Mexico Sat afternoon and Veracruz, Mexico by Sat evening. Near gale to gale force winds are also possible along the cold front in the central Gulf as it sweeps across the basin. Rough to very rough seas will spread across most of the Gulf Sat through Sun. Conditions will begin to improve by Mon as high pressure settles in across the region. Fresh southerly return flow is expected for the western Gulf Wed and Wed night as the high shifts eastward. Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period northwest swell generated by a storm-force low pressure system over the northern Atlantic will continue to impact the central Atlantic today. Very rough to high seas of 12-20 ft with a period of 12-15 seconds are affecting the waters north of 22N and east of about 55W. These seas are forecast to subside from west to east below 12 ft tonight, but seas 8 ft or greater will continue to dominate the the waters east of about 60W. Marine interests in the above areas are urged to monitor these situations closely and plan accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at Guinea near 11N16W, and continues southwestward to near 03N25W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to below the Equator at 28W and to 02S39W. Scattered moderate convection from 01N to 03N between 28W-37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for an upcoming Gale Warning. Regional radar shows a large area of stratiform rain across the entire northern Gulf from northwest Mexico to north Florida. This is associated with moist SW flow ahead of a mid to upper-level trough approaching from the west. The pattern is supporting a strong cold front that is over the Texas coastal plains early his morning. A weak ridge is present over the NE Gulf, while a trough over the central Gulf extends from near 28N89W to a 1011 mb low that is just inland Mexico near Ciudad del Carmen. A rather weak pressure gradient over the basin is maintaining mostly gentle breezes and slight seas across the basin. The exception will soon be in the NW Gulf as the cold front makes its way into that part of the Gulf very soon, winds behind it will abruptly become north to northeast at strong to near gale speeds. For the forecast, marine conditions across the Gulf of Mexico will be associated with a strong cold front moving across the region this upcoming weekend. The front is forecast to bring gale force winds and very rough seas. Please read the Special Features section for more details. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about gale conditions near the coast of Colombia that are forecast to end this morning. High pressure over the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low continue to support fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes show 25-30 kt winds off the coast of Colombia roughly between Barranquilla and Cartagena, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere across the southern Caribbean. Overnight buoy observations and altimeter satellite data also show rough seas of 8-10 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere per latest ASCAT satellite data passes. For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean. Gale force winds off the Colombia coast will diminish early this morning. Strong trade winds will persist through early next week across this area. A cold front will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sun into early and across the central Caribbean through midweek while weakening. Fresh northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front. Very rough seas are expected in and near the Yucatan Channel Sun night, then subsiding afterward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Significant Swell event. A 1021 high center is analyzed near 28N57W. A ridge extends west- southwestward from it to 27N67W and to near the central Bahamas. Farther east, a cold front is analyzed from near 31N34W to 24N45W and to near 22N58W. A pre-frontal trough extends from near 24N44W to 15N50W. The gradient associated to the high pressure center is allowing for mostly gentle to moderate winds between 43W-57W. west of 35W. In addition to the large wave- heights described above in the Special Features section, wave heights of 5-7 ft south of 22N are due to a a mix of northwest swell with northeast wind waves generated by the trade winds. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong northeast winds are indicated by an overnight ASCAT data pass to be present off the coast of northwest Africa. Seas of 8-12 ft due to a long-period northwest swell are north of 20N and east of 35W. Wave heights elsewhere are 5-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas north of 20N and east of 65W will shift east and southeast of the forecast waters by this evening. A cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on Sat, bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas N of 25N and E of 70W through early next week. Low pressure may form along the front near the Bahamas Sun night into Mon and track northeastward to north of 31N by late Tue. Strong winds and rough seas are possible with this low. $$ Aguirre