000 AXNT20 KNHC 161726 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Feb 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1726 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight gradient between high pressure of 1023 mb located over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean Sea will support gale-force winds offshore Colombia this evening. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 10-12 ft. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then moves southeastward across the central and eastern Gulf through early next week. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected to follow this front, peaking at near-gale to gale force across the west- central and central Gulf Sat late afternoon into early Sun morning. Wave heights with the strongest winds are forecast to reach 12-17 ft. Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period northwest swell generated by a storm-force low pressure system over the northern Atlantic will continue to impact the central Atlantic through Sat. Expect very rough to high seas of 12-21 ft currently north of 24.5N between 29W-62W and with a period of 12-16 seconds to spread farther southward to near 22N on Sat. As this swell gradually decays Fri through Sat, it should allow seas to subside to between 12 and 15 ft and shift east of 42W by Sat afternoon. Seas west of 35W should subside below 12 ft Sat night or early Sun morning. Marine interests in the above areas need to monitor these situations closely and plan accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Guinea Bissau, then extends southwestward to near 03N23W. The ITCZ begins near 03N23W and continues westward to 01N32W and to 01N47W. Isolated moderate convection is within 70 nm north of the ITCZ between 31W-35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for an upcoming Gale Warning. Upper-level southwesterly flow as a result of a persistent southern jet stream branch is advecting plenty of thick cirrus cloudiness across the west-central and northern Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the Gulf. Three weak troughs are over the Gulf. One extends from 29N89W to 22N97W, the second extends from 26N83W to 22N86W, and the third extends from 22N91W. Scattered showers are possible mainly near the first trough. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft are present throughout the Gulf. With the exception of moderate east to southeast winds and wave heights of 3-4 ft over the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, high pressure over the area will shift eastward today through early Sat. Weak low pressure will develop over the NW Gulf on Sat and track eastward across the Gulf during the weekend. Its associated cold front is expected to reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon and from the Florida Keys to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula Sun morning. The front will push east of the basin by Sun night. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front through the weekend. Gale force winds are possible in the wake of the front during the upcoming weekend, especially in the western Gulf. Conditions will begin to improve by Mon as high pressure settles across the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for an upcoming gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. Recent scatterometer data reveals gentle to moderate trade winds in the western part of the sea, where wave heights seas are 3-5 ft. Mainly moderate SE winds prevail over the western Caribbean, with 2-5 ft seas. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with wave heights of 6-11 ft are in the central part of the sea. Where the highest winds and seas are off the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean. Gale force winds off the Colombia coast will pulse back up to gale force tonight. Strong trade winds will persist through early next week across this area. Meanwhile, a stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to northeast Honduras. The front will dissipate through late tonight. The next cold front will move across the NW Caribbean Sun into Mon, bringing moderate to locally fresh winds with moderate to potentially rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Significant Swell event. A cold front extends southwestward from 31N37W to 22N58W, then continues westward as a weakening stationary front to the Turk and Caicos. A secondary front extends from 31N42W to 25N54W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds with possible scattered showers are evident between these frontal boundaries N of 23N between 35W and 52W. Other than the wave heights created by the large northwest swell, fresh to strong northwest winds are behind the second cold front north of 30N. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds and wave heights of 14-17 ft in northwest swell are up to 240 nm southeast of the cold front. A 1023 mb high center is analyzed the Atlantic near 29N65W. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow pattern associated to this high center is present west of 76W. Seas over this area are 5-8 ft. In the eastern part of the Atlantic, high pressure ridging extends from a 1029 mb high center north of Madeira at 26N30W southwestward to near 21N44W. Light to gentle winds along with wave heights of 5-6 ft in moderate northerly swell are present up to 200 nm along either side of the ridge axis. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and wave heights of 6-8 ft are present north of 10N between the African coast and 30W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are present from about 05N to 15N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate mainly easterly winds along with seas of 5-7 ft due to mixed moderate swell are over the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. For the forecast west of 55W, cold front extends from 31N38W to 22N57W, then becomes a weakening stationary front to the Turks and Caicos. The front will continue to weaken through tonight. Very rough to high seas N of 23N and E of 75W will move E and SE of the forecast waters on Sat. Moderate to rough seas will continue through the weekend. Another cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on Sat, bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas N of 25N and E of 70W through early next week. Low pressure may form along the front near the Bahamas and track northeastward late Tue. $$ KRV