000 AXNT20 KNHC 161040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Feb 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight gradient between high pressure of 1022 mb located over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean Sea is supporting gale-force winds offshore Colombia. These winds are forecast to peak at 40 kt during early morning hours before diminishing to below gale-force. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 10-13 ft. These winds will again develop offshore Colombia tonight. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then moves southeastward across the central and eastern Gulf through early next week. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected to follow this front, peaking at near-gale to gale force across the west-central and central Gulf Sat night into early Sun morning. Wave heights with the strongest winds are forecast to reach 12-15 ft. Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period northwest swell generated by a storm-force low pressure system over the northern Atlantic will continue to impact the central Atlantic through Sat. Expect very rough to high seas of 12-21 ft currently north of 25N between 35W-65W and with a period of 12-14 seconds to spread farther southward to near 21N on Sat. As this swell gradually decays Fri through Sat, it should allow seas to subside to between 12 and 16 ft and shift east of 50W by Sat afternoon. Seas west of 35W should subside below 12 ft Sat night or early Sun morning. Marine interests in the above areas need to monitor these situations closely and plan accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Gambia-Guinea Bissau border, then extends southwestward to near 02N23W, where over night scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues westward to 01N31W and to 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 23W-29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for an upcoming Gale Warning. Upper-level southwesterly flow as a result of a persistent southern jet stream branch is advecting plenty of thick cirrus cloudiness across the west-central and northern Gulf. Otherwise, high pressure anchored by a 1021 mb high centered in the NE Gulf is,for the most part, present over the Gulf. A couple of weak troughs are over the central Gulf. One extends from 28N86W to 24N86W, and the other one from just offshore southeastern Louisiana to 25N93W. Isolated showers are possible mainly near the second trough, and over some areas of the western Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft are present at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and wave heights of 4-6 ft are over the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds and lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the rest of the basin. Patches of rain, with embedded scattered showers are over the western Gulf, and along some of the Texas coastal plains. For the forecast, high pressure over the area will shift eastward today through early Sat. Weak low pressure will develop over the NW Gulf on Sat and track eastward across the Gulf during the weekend. Its associated cold front is expected to reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon and from the Florida Keys to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula Sun morning. The front is expected to push east of the basin by Sun night. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front through the weekend. Gale force winds are possible in the wake of the front during the upcoming weekend, especially in the western Gulf. Conditions will begin to improve by Mon as high pressure settles across the area. Meanwhile, fresh north to northeast winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will diminish Fri morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. A dissipating stationary front extends west-southwestward from eastern Cuba to the northwestern Caribbean near 19N84W. Isolated showers are near the frontal boundary. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes show gentle to moderate trade winds in the western part of the sea, where wave heights seas are 3-5 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are in the lee of central Cuba per overnight ASCAT satellite data passes. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with wave heights of 6-9 ft are in the central part of the sea. Gentle to moderate trade winds and wave heights of 3-5 ft are elsewhere over the basin. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean. Gale force winds off the Colombia coast will diminish this morning, but pulse back up to gale force Fri night. Strong trade winds will persist through early next week across this area. Meanwhile, a stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to northeast Honduras. The front will dissipate through late tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Significant Swell event. A cold front extends southwestward from the Azores through 31N41W to 23N57W, then continues westward as a weakening stationary front to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds with possible scattered showers are evident near and up to 120 nm northwest and north of the frontal boundary. Other than the wave heights created by the large northwest swell, fresh to strong northwest to north winds are behind the cold front to near 62W. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds and wave heights of 14-18 ft in northwest swell are up to 240 nm southeast of the cold front. A 1022 mb high center is analyzed in the western part of the Atlantic near 29.5N71W. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow pattern associated to this high center is present west of 58W. Seas over this area are 8-12 ft in north swell between 61W-70W, 10-13 ft between 61W-58W, 6-8 ft between 70W-75W and 4-6 ft west of 75W. In the eastern part of the Atlantic, high pressure ridging extends from a 1027 mb high center that is just north of the Canary Islands at 33N26W southwestward to near 19N41W. Light to gentle winds along with wave heights of 4-6 ft in moderate northerly swell are present up to 200 nm along either side of the ridge axis. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and wave heights of 5-7 ft are present north of 10N between the African coast and 30W. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes reveal gentle to moderate northeast to east winds from about 05N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly winds along with seas of 5-7 ft due to mixed moderate swell are over the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean discussion domain. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will become stationary from near 23N55W to 22N61W today and weaken through tonight. Very rough to high seas N of 23N and E of 75W will move east and southeast of the forecast waters on Sat. Moderate to rough seas will continue through the weekend. Another cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on Sat, bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas N of 25N and E of 70W through early next week. Low pressure may form along the front near the Bahamas and track northeastward late Tue. $$ Aguirre