000 AXNT20 KNHC 152322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Feb 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The most recent scatterometer pass shows fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, particularly from 10.5N to 16N, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt near the coast of Colombia. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian will support pulsing winds to gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight and again Fri night. Seas will build to near 13 ft with the strongest winds. Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period NW swell generated by a storm-force low pressure system over the northern Atlantic is impacting the central Atlantic forecast area. Very rough to high seas will accompany this swell event tonight, covering the roughly the waters N of 26N and E of 63W. On Thu, an altimeter pass captured wave heights up to 22 ft near 31N47W. This swell event will continue to propagate southward, and mainly across the waters E of 60W over the next couple of days. By Fri morning, seas of 12 to 22 ft are expected over the area N of 24N and E of 62W. The areal coverage of 12 ft seas will begin to decrease on Sat, with seas below 12 ft by Sat night. At that time, seas in excess of 8 ft will dominate much of the region E of 60W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 10N15W and continues southwestward to 04N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to near 00N40W. Convection is limited. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters. This pattern is supporting light to gentle winds with the exception of gentle to moderate easterly winds over the SE Gulf, mainly from 24N to 27N and E of 84W to the coast of SW Florida. Seas are 3 to 4 ft within these winds, and in the central Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Strong southwesterly flow aloft is transporting abundant tropical moisture across Mexico into the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast, high pressure over the area will shift eastward through Fri. Weak low pressure will develop over the NW Gulf on Sat and track eastward across the Gulf during the weekend. Its associated cold front is expected to reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon and from the Florida Keys to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula Sun morning. The front is expected to push east of the basin by Sun night. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front through the weekend. Gale force winds are possible in the wake of the front during the upcoming weekend, especially in the western Gulf. Conditions will begin to improve by Mon as high pressure settles across the area. Meanwhile, mostly fresh winds will pulse off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the evening today. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on ongoing gale conditions off Colombia. A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are possible near the front. A recent scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong NE to E winds across the south-central Caribbean along with rough seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean. Gale force winds will to pulse off the Colombia coast tonight and Fri night. Strong trade winds will persist through early next week across this area. Meanwhile, a stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to northeast Honduras. The front will gradually dissipate through late tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Significant Swell event over the north-central Atlantic. A cold front extends from near 31N43W to the Turks and Caicos Islands, where it transitions to a stationary front and continues to eastern Cuba. A band of mainly low clouds, with possible showers is associated with the front. Satellite derived wind data indicate strong to near gale force winds N of 25N and ahead of the front to about 42W. Fresh to strong Nw winds are behind the front to near 62W. Very rough to high seas follow the front as described in the Special Features section. High pressure, in the wake of the front, dominates the western Atlantic while a 1025 mb high pressure is centered just W of the Madeira Islands, extending ridge across the east and central Atlantic ahead of the front. Light and variable winds are under the influence of the ridge. Moderate trades are seen across the tropical Atlantic wit seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach from 31N40W to north of Hispaniola by Fri morning and will weaken by Fri night. Fresh to strong winds on either side of the front N of 25N will move E of 55W through late tonight and diminish by Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Very rough to high seas N of 23N and E of 75W will move E and SE of the forecast waters on Sat. Moderate to rough seas will continue through the weekend. Another cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on Sat, bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas N of 25N and E of 70W through early next week. Low pressure may form along the front near the Bahamas. $$ GR