000 AXNT20 KNHC 151117 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Feb 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over the western Caribbean Sea and in South America has resulted in a tightening of the pressure gradient across the Caribbean. Trade winds up to gale force near the coast of Colombia. An overnight ship observation had gale-force winds along the coast of Colombia at a location of 11N75W. The ongoing gale winds will diminish in about a couple of hours or so. Winds will again pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight and on Fri night. Seas will build to near 13 ft during the period of gale force winds. Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period NW swell generated from a hurricane-force low over the northern Atlantic will impact the central Atlantic waters. Seas with this swell will peak to about 20 ft today and tonight over the discussion waters north of 30N between 45W-55W. An overnight altimeter satellite data pass captured wave heights up to 17 ft near 31N58.5W. The leading edge of 12 ft seas will propagate southeastward during he next couple of days, covering the waters roughly north of 23N between 25W-60W late Fri. Afterwards, the areal coverage of 12 ft seas will begin to decrease as seas gradually subside below 12 ft through the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic on the coast of Guinea Bissau near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 04N20W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to near 03S34W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is just south of the Equator between 20W-29W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern continues across the Gulf between high pressure centered over NE Gulf and just offshore northern Georgia and a pair of weak troughs, one of which extends from north- central Cuba northwest and north to along the Florida west coast, and the other one is analyzed from near 24N94W to the western Yucatan Peninsula near 19N91W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and generally light to gentle breezes elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range, except for slightly higher seas of 3-5 ft over the southeastern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, high pressure over the area will shift eastward through Fri. Weak low pressure will develop over the NW Gulf on Sat and track eastward toward the eastern Gulf through late Sat. Its associated cold front is expected to reach from west central Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon, from the Florida Keys to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula early Sun, and to east of the basin by late Sun. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected behind the front through the weekend. Winds to minimal gale force are possible in the wake of the front during the upcoming weekend, especially in the western Gulf. Mostly fresh winds will pulse off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late in the afternoon and evening on Thu. High pressure will settle in across the area starting late Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on ongoing gale conditions off Colombia. A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to northeast Honduras. Isolated showers are possible near the front. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes indicate moderate to fresh trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. Outside of the gale force winds near Colombia, winds of strong to near-gale force speeds are elsewhere along the coast of Colombia as they are also being sustained by the the tight pressure gradient that is in place. Seas with these winds are 8-10 ft as were indicated by an altimeter satellite data pass from last night. Gentle to moderate breezes and seas of 3-5 ft seas are present elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean. Gale force winds off the Colombia coast early this morning will diminish in a few hours. These winds will develop again tonight and Fri night, with strong trade winds continuing into the weekend. Meanwhile, a stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to northeast Honduras. The front will gradually dissipate through late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on significant swell over the north-central Atlantic. A cold front extends from near 31N47W southwestward to 24N63W and to eastern Cuba, where it transitions to a stationary front into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong southwest winds are east of the front to near 41W and north of 26N, while fresh to strong west to northwest winds are west of the front to 70W, mainly north of 28N. Concurrent altimeter satellite passes show the large NW swell discussed in the Special Features section approaching the area from the north, mainly between 46W-68W. In the far eastern Atlantic, a 1021 mb high center is analyzed at 30N25W. This high is part of a broader ridge extending across the eastern Atlantic north of 20N and east of 55W, supporting mostly moderate trade winds farther south and gentle breezes elsewhere along with seas of 5-7 ft due to long-period NW to N swell. Also in the far eastern Atlantic, a trough extends from near 31N16W to 28N23W, however, no convection is occurring with this feature. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near 25N55W to 21N65W and to the eastern tip of Cuba by early this afternoon, then stall along 21N E of 76W on Fri while it weakens through Fri night. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds behind the front N of 29N will shift E of 55W late tonight. Rough to very rough seas N of 25N and E of 73W will translate E and SE of the forecast waters on Sat. Winds will diminish from W to E on Fri as high pressure builds along 30N in the wake of the front. The rough to very rough seas will persist through the weekend. Another cold front will emerge off the Florida coast later in the weekend, bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas N of 25N and E of 70W through Mon. Low pressure may form along the front near the Bahamas. $$ Aguirre