000 AXNT20 KNHC 140316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Feb 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from Bermuda to central Cuba. Gale- force winds are north of 30N and east of the front to 68W, where seas are in the 10-13 ft range. The area of gale- force winds will lift north of the area overnight as the parent low responsible for the winds moves further NE and away from the area. Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure will build in the wake of the cold front discussed above. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Wed night and Thu night. Seas will build to near 12 ft during the period of gale force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 02N30W to 00N35W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 02N to 04N between 25W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1022 mb high pressure is centered over the northwest Gulf just south of the Sabine Pass. Gentle to moderate northerly breezes are noted across the Gulf, except for light E to SE breezes over the northwest Gulf. Combines seas are 5 to 8 ft east of 90W due to lingering northerly swell, and 4 to 6 ft west of 90W, except for 2 to 4 ft in the far northwest Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted and no fog is being reported at this time. For the forecast, the high pressure is the main feature controlling the weather pattern across the basin. It will gradually shift eastward through Fri. A low pressure system is forecast to develop over the NW Gulf late Fri, and track eastward toward the eastern Gulf by late Sat. The attendant cold front is expected to reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon, and from near Ft. Myers, FLorida to western Cuba Sat night. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the front. Winds to minimal gale force are possible in the wake of the front during the upcoming weekend. Mostly fresh winds will pulse off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula at night Wed and Thu as a trough develops there in the late afternoons and evenings. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale warning off Colombia. A cold front is over the northwest Caribbean from central Cuba to central Honduras. Recent buoy observations indicate fresh to strong northerly winds west of the front from the Yucatan Channel to the Bay Islands of Honduras, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas persist over the southeast and south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Generally moderate winds and seas persist elsewhere. A few showers are noted over the Gulf of Honduras and east of the Windward Islands. For the forecast, the front will stall from east-central central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Wed, then will dissipate through late Thu. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the southern Caribbean through Sat, with winds possibly reaching gale force off Colombia at night Wed through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale warning in the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from Bermuda to central Cuba. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicates strong to near-gale force winds near the front where it crosses 31N. The gale warning has been extended to 06 UTC, when it will expire. Buoy observations show wind are diminishing fairly quickly farther west off northeast Florida as high pressure builds over the region in the wake of the front. The buoy observations along with altimeter satellite data confirm large combined seas persist mainly north of 28N and west of 30N in a combination of the winds associated with the front and lingering swell from an earlier storm system over the north Atlantic. A trough is analyzed from 31N30W to 27N37W. The remainder of the Atlantic discussion area is dominated by 1022 mb high pressure centered near 23N50W, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 15N and west of 30W, where combined seas are 7 to 9 ft in northerly swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will reach from near 31N58W to east central Cuba by Wed morning, and from near 25N55W to the southern Turks and Caicos Islands by Thu morning, then reach the far southern waters by early Fri morning. Minimal gale force winds are expected ahead of the front through late tonight over the far northern waters. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are expected to continue on either side of the front through the remainder of the week. Winds will diminish from W to E through Fri as high pressure builds along 30N in the wake of the front, although large seas are likely to linger a little longer. $$ Christensen