000 AXNT20 KNHC 131731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Feb 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for, North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A cold front is passing through 31N76W, to 27N79W, to the Upper Florida Keys, through the Straits of Florida, to NW Cuba. Expect: gale-force W winds, and rough to very rough seas, from 30N northward from the cold front westward to 80W. Expect also: strong to near gale-force W winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 27N northward to the west of the cold front. Expect: gale-force SW winds, and rough seas, from 30N northward between 70W and the cold front. Elsewhere from 27N northward between 31N60W 27N74W and the cold front: strong to near gale-force SW winds, and rough seas. These conditions will continue for the next 24 hours or so. Gale- force winds will be on either side of the cold front. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W, to 05N15W 02N24W. The ITCZ continues from 02N24W, to 01N39W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 05N between 08W and 27W. Scattered moderate to strong is in Brazil and in its coastal waters from 02N to 03S between 44W and 53W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is passing through the Upper Florida Keys, through the Straits of Florida, to NW Cuba, into the NW Caribbean Sea, to the western sections of Honduras. Broad fresh to strong anticyclonic wind flow covers the area. Rough seas cover much of the Gulf of Mexico. Some exceptions are: moderate seas in the Straits of Florida, and from 95W westward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are to the north of the line that is from SW Florida to the coast of Mexico along 20N, and from 20N southward. A cold front is exiting the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas are still noted over the NE Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish through tonight as high pressure builds from west to east over the northern Gulf coast in the wake of the front. Fresh winds will pulse off the west coast of Yucatan Thu and Fri as a trough develops there in the evenings. Moist E to SE flow will support areas of fog Thu and Fri as well. Looking ahead, low pressure will develop over the northwest Gulf late Fri. The attendant cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon, and from Ft. Myers, FL to western Cuba Sat night. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on both sides of the front. Winds to minimal gale-force are possible in the wake of the front on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is passing through the Upper Florida Keys, through the Straits of Florida, to NW Cuba, into the NW Caribbean Sea, to the western sections of Honduras. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are to the west 81W/82W along the coast of Cuba, to 84W at the coast of Honduras. Moderate seas cover the areas that are from Jamaica southward between the Anegada Passage and 81W. An exception is for rough seas in the coastal waters of Colombia between 74W and 76W. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are from Jamaica eastward. Mostly moderate NE to E winds are from 16N southward from Jamaica westward. Mostly moderate SE winds are in the NW corner of the area, to the east of the cold front. Near gale-force NE winds were in the Gulf of Venezuela during the early morning hours of today. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the rest of the area. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 13/1200 UTC, are: 0.43 in Guadeloupe; and 0.08 in Trinidad, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A cold front is over the northwest Caribbean and extends from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. The front will stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Wed, and then will dissipate through late Thu. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the southern Caribbean through Sat, with winds possibly reaching gale force off Colombia at night Wed through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for the forecast about gale-force winds for the waters that are to the east of Florida, for the next 24 hours or so. A cold front is passing through 31N76W, to 27N79W, to the Upper Florida Keys, through the Straits of Florida, to NW Cuba, into the NW Caribbean Sea, to the western sections of Honduras. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are to the west of the line through 31N69W to the coast of Cuba that is along 80W. A surface trough is along 31N27W 20N35W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 20W and 40W. Fresh NE winds are from 18N southward between 32W and 60W. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are from 29N northward between 50W and 62W. Fresh W winds are from 27N northward between 30W and 40W. Fresh and faster SW winds are to the north of 28N35W beyond 31N27W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 25N northward between Africa and 19W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough seas are from 20N southward between 40W and 60W, and from 18N northward from 40W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from 31N77W to SE Florida crossing just south of the Florida Keys. The front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by tonight, and from 31N58W to eastern Cuba by Wed morning before stalling and dissipating along roughly 22N through Thu night into Fri morning. Strong winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the front through tonight mainly north of 27N, reaching gale force along 31N today. Winds will diminish from west to east through Fri as high pressure builds along 30N in the wake of the front, although large wave heights will persist a little longer. $$ mt/gr