000 AXNT20 KNHC 122245 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Feb 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: SW winds have begun to increase today off northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas, ahead of a Gulf of Mexico cold front approaching the area from the west. Winds will reach minimal gale-force N of 30N between 75W and 80W tonight, then shift eastward as far E as 66W through Tue afternoon before diminsining below Gale-force. Seas are expected to build during this time and peak at 12 to 16 ft in mixed SW and W swell by Tue afternoon. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale-force NW to N winds are occurring across the SW Gulf of Mexico this evening, behind a cold front that stretches from Pensacola Bay to the central Bay of Campeche. Winds will diminish below gale force this evening, but the duration and long fetch of the winds will allow seas to build as high as 14 ft across the W central and SW Gulf through early tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 02.5N23W. The ITCZ extends from 02.5N23W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5S43W. A line of scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 04N between 24W and 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning issued for the western Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force NW to N winds prevail S of 24N and within 180 nm behind a cold front that extends from from Pensacola Bay to the central Bay of Campeche along 94W. Afternoon altimeter satellite data and buoy observations across the west central and southwest Gulf show that seas have already built to 12-14 ft immediately behind the front, and suggest that gale-force winds likely accompanied the front across central portions early this afternoon. Elsewhere behind the front, strong NW to N winds of 20 to 30 kt extend from the Texas coastal waters to the front, with seas of 7 to 12 ft. N of 25N and ahead of the front fresh to strong S to SW winds dominate the NE Gulf, where seas are 5 to 9 ft. Narrow lines of scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the NE Gulf ahead of the front, north of 27N. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE across the Gulf tonight, and reach the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel by Tue morning. Gale-force winds are expected to diminish to arond 30 kt later this evening. Otherwise, fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas will follow the front through Tue morning. Marine conditions will continue to improve Wed and Thu as a ridge builds across the basin. Gales are possible again Fri night through Sat night as low pressure, and an associated cold front, move E-SE across the Gulf region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Winds across the Caribbean Basin have diminished slightly today, as an Atlantic high pressure ridge N of the basin has shifted eastward, ahead of the cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. Strong easterly trade winds continue across south central portions, S of 14N, while fresh to strong SE to S winds across the Gulf of Honduras and into the Yucatan Channel have diminished to moderate to fresh. Satellite altimeter data at midday measured peak seas persisting at 12-13 ft offshore of Colombia, and have likely subsided to 10-11 ft since that time. Elsewhere seas are 6 t 9 ft across the central and south central Caribbean and 5 to 8 ft NW portions. Scattered showers continue across the eastern Caribbean along 14.5N, along a dying frontal trough extending across the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, the gale-force winds off Colombia will diminish later this morning as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. The front will enter the Yucatan Channel later today then start to stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by mid week. Large northerly swell will continue to move into the northeast Caribbean via Atlantic passages into Mon night. Looking ahead, high pressure building in the wake of the front will support a new round of fresh to strong trade winds across mainly the central Caribbean by mid week, possibly reaching gale force off Colombia by late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on ongoing significant swell in the north-central tropical Atlantic, and the developing gales off northeast Florida. The subtropical ridge extends along roughly 26N/27N west of 40W, anchored by 1023 mb high pressure centered near 27N62W. REcent buoy observations and scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh southerly flow off northeast Florida, and south of the ridge, along with evidence the large swell persists as described in the Special Features section. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N28W to 20N40W. Northerly swell with wave heights as high as 8 to 10 ft extends as far south as 24N, east of 35W, with moderate seas elsewhere. For the forecast, the ridge will move eastward across the central Atlantic through mid- week, ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast late tonight into early Tue morning. Strong to near- gale force S to SW winds will develop off northeast Florida through tonight ahead of the this cold front, reaching minimal gale-force tonight. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by late Tue, from 31N50W to eastern Cuba by late Wed, before starting to stall and dissipate from 24N55W to the Mona Passage by late Thu. $$ Stripling