000 AXNT20 KNHC 110953 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Feb 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure system south of Bermuda and lower pressures in NW South America result in strong to gale-force NE-E winds and rough to very rough seas from 11N to 13N and between 73W and 77W, offshore Colombia. Seas will peak near 14 ft early this morning. These conditions will prevail this morning and pulse again to gale force tonight. Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A strong non-tropical cyclone in the north Atlantic is producing a large area of long period N to NW swell, resulting in seas of 12-16 ft occurring N of 27N and between 35W and 55W. This swell will move to the southeast today, with seas falling below 12 ft west of 35W tonight. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the Texas coast late today. Behind the front, NW winds will briefly increase to gale-force Mon off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico south of 21N and west of 95W, with 12 ft seas. The front is expected to reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz, Mexico on Mon morning, and move to the southeast of the Gulf waters late Tue. High pressure will build across the basin behind the front with quickly improving marine conditions Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 08N19W to 01N33W and to 01N50W. No deep convection is observed near these boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning issued for the western Gulf of Mexico. A broad ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate but moist SE winds across the Gulf. Platforms over the northwest Gulf have been reporting visibility as low as 3 to 4 nm in haze. Dense fog is evident over the waters wihtin 20 nm of the coast of upper Texas. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft in SE swell. For the forecast, the high pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the central Gulf will shift east this morning ahead of a cold front that will move off the Texas coast late today. The front will across the Gulf by Tue morning. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front, reaching gale force off Veracruz early Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Wed and Thu as high pressure builds over the Deep South states. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in effect for Colombian coastal waters. The previously-mentioned high pressure system north of the Caribbean islands extends southward into the region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in NW South America result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the Caribbean basin, culminating in gale-force winds off NW Colombia as discussed in the Special Features section. The strongest winds outside of the south-central Caribbean are evident in the north- central Caribbean, to include the Atlantic entrance to the Windward Passage. Other areas include the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Moderate seas prevail in the Caribbean waters outside of the south-central Caribbean. For the forecast, large N to NE swell from the Atlantic will continue to impact the NE Caribbean and passages through late today before subsiding on Mon. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force winds near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras tonight and gradually spread through the Yucatan Channel through Mon as the Atlantic high shifts SE into the central Atlantic, and a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. The front will enter the NW Caribbean on Tue, then stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Wed and dissipate. Gale conditions are possible near the coast of Colombia Wed night and Thu night as high pressure builds again in the wake of the front and N of the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on ongoing significant swell in the north-central tropical Atlantic. A ridge extends across the western Atlantic along roughly 29N anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure system south of Bermuda . The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to locally strong easterly winds south of 25N and west of 60W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident west of 75W. In the remainder of the western Atlantic, west of 60W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas are prevalent. Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N32W and continues southwestward to 20N46W, where it becomes a trough extending to Saint Lucia. Isolated showers are noted near the boundary. Fresh to locally strong westerly winds are present north of 27N and between the front and 50W. Fresh SW winds are occurring ahead of the front to 27W and north of 27N, along with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, rough to very rough seas in excess of 12 ft north of 27N and east of 55W through tonight before gradually subsiding on Sun. Strong to near-gale force S to SW winds will develop off NE Florida on Mon and Mon night ahead of the next cold front forecast to exit the SE U.S. and N Florida Tue morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the northwest Bahamas by Tue evening, then drift to the southeast while weakening by Wed. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and building seas will follow the front. $$ Christensen