000 AXNT20 KNHC 101758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Feb 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Expect: near gale-force to gale-force NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from tonight until Sunday morning. Expect, in general, strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, elsewhere, in the central two-thirds of the Caribbean Sea, during the next 24 hours or so. The current conditions: NE to E fresh to moderate winds, and moderate seas are in the rest of the eastern parts of the area. Fresh SE winds, and moderate seas, are in the NW corner of the area. Moderate winds, and slight seas are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT... Mariners are urged exercise caution during the next few days in the central Atlantic Ocean, due to the hazardous marine conditions of the current swell event. The sea heights are 12 feet or higher, from 25N northward between 40W and 70W. These conditions are to the northwest of the current 31N37W 28N40W 22N50W 17N60W 16N63W cold front. The sea heights have been reaching 16 feet/17 feet from 30N northward between 55W and 60W. Rough seas, from 8 feet and higher, are elsewhere from the Greater Antilles northward from 70W eastward, to the northwest of the cold front. This swell will move eastward gradually during the weekend. The forecast is for the sea heights to subside to less than 12 feet from 35W westward on Sunday night. Rough seas will continue to affect most of the waters from 15N northward from 60W eastward, through Monday. The current conditions: moderate seas are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, to the southeast of the cold front. Fresh cyclonic wind flow is from 25N northward between 30W and 60W. Strong and faster winds are to the north of the forecast area. Fresh to some strong easterly winds are from 24N southward between 70W and 80W. Fresh NE winds are from 15N southward from 30W westward, and from 14N to 22N between 20W and 30W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. ...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... Expect by Monday morning: a cold front 30N89W 19N95W. Near gale- force to gale-force NW to N winds, and rough seas, from 26N southward to the west of the cold front. Expect elsewhere to the west of the cold front: fresh to some strong NW to N winds, and rough seas. Expect: fresh to some strong S to SW winds, and moderate to rough seas, from 22N to 28N between 84W and 88W. The current conditions are: fresh to some strong SE winds are in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate and fresh SE winds are in the western half of the area. Moderate seas cover much of the Gulf of Mexico. An exception is for slight seas off the coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula, and off the coast of west central Florida. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains of Sierra Leone, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W, to 03N26W and 02N36W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 36W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 12N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the forecast for gale-force winds on Monday morning, and for the current conditions for the seas and for the winds. Moderate to fresh return flow is expected across the Gulf basin through early Sun as high pressure along the eastern seaboard shifts E into the Atlc. Patchy fog is possible over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by tonight, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun. Behind the front, NW winds will briefly increase to gale-force W of 95W on Mon. The front is expected to reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz on Mon morning and move SE of the Gulf basin late Tue. High pressure will build across the basin behind the front with quickly improving marine conditions. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the forecast for gale-force wind conditions in the coastal waters of Colombia, and for the current conditions for the seas and for the winds. Large N to NE swell will continue to impact the regional Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages over the weekend before subsiding on Mon. High pressure will prevail across the western Atlantic and move slowly E-SE through Mon. Gale force winds over the waters N of Colombia will weaken this morning, then pulse again tonight, and Sun night. Fresh to strong trade winds and building seas will prevail over the central Caribbean through early next week, while gentle to moderate E winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras tonight and gradually spread through the Yucatan Channel Sun and Mon as the Atlantic high shifts SE into the central Atlantic, and a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. The front will enter the NW Caribbean Tue night then stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed and dissipate. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the ongoing SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT, and for the current conditions for the seas and for the winds. Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail today across the west- central Atlantic N of 27N and E of 57W behind a cold front that extends from 31N39W to near Guadeloupe in the Leeward Islands. Rough to very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will continue N of 27N and E of 62W through tonight before gradually subsiding on Sun. Winds will diminish from west to east through Sun as the front moves SE and weakens, and high pressure currently near 30N72W slides eastward across the area. Strong S to SW winds will develop off NE Florida on Mon ahead of the next cold front forecast to exit the SE U.S. and N Florida Tue morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas by Tue evening, then drift SE while weakening quickly Wed. $$ mt/gr