000 AXNT20 KNHC 100519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Feb 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0546 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas generated by a strong extratropical cyclone, with hurricane force winds, located over the central Atlantic, well N of the forecast area, continue to propagate across the forecast waters mainly N of 26N between 45W and 66W. Seas of 12 ft or greater are being observed in this reach, with areas along 31N, especially between 48W and 61W, experiencing peak seas around 16 ft. The area of 8 ft seas or greater are N of the Greater Antilles, E of 74W, and then NW of a line from 31N34W to 23N50W. This swell will gradually shift eastward during the weekend covering most of the waters N of 26N and E of 62W by Sat morning, and N of 25N E of 56W by Sun morning. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft across the waters W of 35W late Sun night. However, rough seas in the 8 to 11 ft range, will continue to affecting most of the waters N of 15N and E of 60W through Mon. Mariners are urged exercise caution over the next few days across the central atlantic, as this swell event will maintain hazardous marine conditions. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Colombian low and high pressure building over the western Atlantic will support pulsing gale force winds and rough seas off Colombia tonight and again Sat night. Conditions will begin to improve by Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 07N11.5W then continues westward to near 06N15W. The ITCZ extends from 06N15W to 03N30W to 03N43W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are depicted along the ITCZ between 17.5W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Under the influence of the ridge, moderate to fresh southerly return flow prevails over most of the Gulf waters. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh return flow is expected across the Gulf basin through early Sun as high pressure along the eastern seaboard shifts E into the Atlc. Patchy fog is possible over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun. Behind the front, NW winds will briefly increase to gale-force W of 95W on Mon. The front is expected to reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz on Mon morning and move SE of the Gulf basin late Tue. High pressure will build across the basin behind the front with quickly improving marine conditions. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning in effect for the SW Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. A cold front is over the NE Atlantic while its tail end is dissipating. The dissipating portion extends through the central Leeward Islands to near 14N63W. Seas of 8 ft are just N of the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh NE winds in the wake of the dissipating front across the waters S of Puerto Rico. Winds increase to fresh to strong speeds S of the Dominican Republic to about 14N. Seas are 7 to 9 ft within these winds. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are observed in the lee of Cuba, and between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. For the forecast, the aforementioned dissipating cold front will dissipate tonight. Large N swell will continue to impact the regional Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages tonight then gradually become NE over the weekend before subsiding Mon. High pressure will prevail across the western Atlantic and move slowly E-SE through Mon. This will produce fresh to strong trade winds and building seas over the south-central Caribbean tonight, reaching gale-force off Colombia tonight and then pulsing to gale-force again Sat night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras Sat night and gradually spread through the Yucatan Channel Sun and Mon as the Atlantic high shifts SE into the central Atlantic, and a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. The front will enter the NW Caribbean Tue night then stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed and dissipate. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the ongoing Significant Swell in the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N41W then continuous SW. It is near 20N52W where it begins to dissipate then it crosses the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong winds follow the front, particularly N of 26N and E of 59W. Rough to very rough seas in excess of 12 ft are also seen behind the front. A pre- frontal trough extends from 19N51W to 13N57W. High pressure of 1025 mb located E of Florida near 29N74W dominates the western Atlantic, and extends a ridge into the Gulf of Mexico and western Cuba. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 25N31W and dominates the remainder of the forecast area. Mainly moderate trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the tropical Atlantic. Sea increase to 6 to 8 ft NE of the Leeward Islands due to the swell mentioned above. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NW winds will prevail tonight across the west Atlantic N of 27N and E of 60W behind a frontal boundary currently extending from 31N41W SW through the Windward Islands. Rough to very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will continue N of 26N and E of 65W through Sat before gradually subsiding through Mon. Winds will diminish from west to east through Sun as the front moves SE and weakens, and high pressure currently near 30N74W slides E-SE across the area waters. Strong S to SW winds will develop across offshore the N Florida waters ahead of the next cold front on Mon. The front is expected to exit the SE U.S. and N Florida Tue morning, reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas by Tue evening, then drift SE and weaken quickly Wed. $$ KRV