000 AXNT20 KNHC 081007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Feb 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Large Northerly Swell: A 995 mb frontal low centered near 34N59W continues to track northeastward into the north Atlantic. Strong to near-gale NW winds prevail across the area N of 24N between 48W and 72W. Large northerly swell with seas of 12 to 17 ft are expected to persist north of 22N between 53W and 78W through today. This area of winds and seas will gradually shift northeastward through the weekend. Mariners are urged exercise caution over the next few days across the western and central Atlantic, as these seas will maintain hazardous marine conditions. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Pressure gradient between the lower pressures over South America and a high pressure that will build over the Atlantic will support pulsing near gale-force to gale force winds and build seas off Colombia on Fri night and Sat night. Rough seas will be expected with these winds. Conditions will begin to improve Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N11W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 00N43W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 25W and 31W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge runs southwestward from a 1026 mb high over South Carolina to the southwestern Gulf. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted at the northwestern and west-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, southerly flow will increase over the western Gulf today as high pressure over Texas shifts eastward toward the Carolinas, and low pressure develops over northwest Mexico. Patchy fog is possible over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of cold front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun. Behind the front, NW winds may increase to near gale to gale-force on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the Gale Warning in effect for the SW Caribbean. A dissipating cold front extends southwestward from the Anegada Passage to the coast of NE Colombia. A squall line is analyzed from 17N62W to 13N65W. Recent scatterometer data revealed that winds are near-gale force in the area of strongest convention. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present behind the front across the west-central and southwestern portions of the basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate S to SW to NW winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in mixed moderate to large swell prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the strong convection occurring across the eastern Caribbean E of 65W will gradually shift northeastward into the Atlantic by Fri. Moderate seas in NW to N swell will continue across the SW Caribbean through today. Large northerly swell will impact Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong trade winds and building seas are possible over the south-central Caribbean by late Fri, reaching near gale-force off Colombia by Fri night. Gale force winds will pulse again across the waters N of Colombia on Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the Significant Northerly Swell event. A weakening cold front extends southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N54W to 19N63W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted up near and up to 250 nm east of this boundary. The strongest convection is depicted northeast of the Lesser Antilles, where a squall line is analyzed from 19N60W to 17N62W. Recent scatterometer data revealed that winds are near- gale force winds near the strongest convection. Farther west, another cold front reaches southwestward from the aforementioned 996 mb low mentioned in the Special Features section to near 22N67W. Scattered showers are noted near and up to 130 nm east of this front. A broad surface ridging prevails over the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 26N29W. Outside the significant swell area, moderate to fresh SW to W winds and seas at 8 to 14 ft dominate north of 18N between 26W and 80W. For the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail from 07N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near gale NW winds will prevail through today across the west Atlantic behind a pair of frontal boundaries currently located between 55W and 67W. Rough to very rough seas will continue within the area of strongest winds into Fri. Winds will diminish from west to east through Fri as high pressure builds along 28N off the northern Bahamas. Strong S to SW will develop across offshore N FL ahead of the next cold front on Mon. $$ ERA