000 AXNT20 KNHC 071748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Feb 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 996 mb occluded low near Bermuda connects with another 997 mb low pressure center to the SW near 30N61W. A cold front extends SW from this low to the central Bahamas. Widespread near- gale to gale force winds, along with rough to very rough seas peaking at 23 ft are west of the cold front. Winds west of 76W to Florida are diminishing, however, large seas prevail. As the low tracks east- northeastward through this morning, these winds and seas are going to spread eastward north of 25N to 60W. Another area of gale force winds and rough seas developed this morning N of 29N between 49W-52W ahead of the complex low. By this afternoon, the low is expected to slowly weaken, which should allow marine conditions to gradually improve through Thu. Mariners are urged exercise caution over the next couple of days across the above basin, even outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and treacherous seas associated with this weather scenario. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near 06N10W and extends to 04N30W and to 02N50W. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Fresh to strong winds and large NW to N swell continue in the far SE Gulf including the Florida Straits, however conditions will improve today. Marine conditions are improving in the remainder of the eastern Gulf. Moderate NE to N winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted. Light to gentle flow and seas of 3 ft and below are elsewhere. For the forecast,southerly flow will increase over the western Gulf tonight and Thu as high pressure over Texas shifts eastward toward the Carolinas, and low pressure develops over northwest Mexico. Looking ahead, patchy fog is possible over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of cold front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening cold front extends from the Mona Passage to the coast of Colombia near 11N75W. Converging southerly winds east of the cold front is producing strong convection over the NE Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are west of the front in the SW Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola. Seas are 8 to 11 ft. Winds and seas are diminishing in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh N winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted. For the forecast, strong convection will gradually shift northeastward into the Atlantic by Fri. Rough seas will gradually diminish today. Large northerly swell will impact Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean Thu and Fri. Looking ahead, fresh to strong trade winds and building seas are possible over the south-central Caribbean by late Fri, possibly reaching near gale-force off Colombia by Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the Gale Warning currently in effect. A complex low pressure system prevails W of 60W, related to the Gale Warning described above. To the E, surface ridging prevails, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 30N17W. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas at 10 to 16 ft dominate N of 20N between 55W and 75W. Farther east, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are evident N of 20N between 35W and 48W. Gentle southerly winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate NW swell prevail E of 35W. For the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail from 07N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, winds will diminish from west to east Thu and Fri as high pressure builds along 28N off the northern Bahamas. Seas will subside more gradually, with large northerly swell persisting into Sun. $$ Mora