160 AXNT20 KNHC 070958 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Feb 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 996 mb occluded low off the southeastern U.S. near 31N68W is producing widespread near-gale to gale-force winds, along with high to very high seas of 12 to 23 ft mainly W of 70W. As the low tracks east-northeastward through this morning, these winds and seas are going to spread eastward north of 25N to 66.5W. Another area of gale force winds and rough seas will develop this morning N of 29N between 49W-52W. By this afternoon, the low is expected to slowly weaken, which should allow marine conditions to gradually improve through Thu. Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of days across the above basin, even outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and treacherous seas associated with this weather scenario. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W to 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from 06N13W to 02N45W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 15W-31W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridging prevails across the basin. A 1020 mb high is analyzed near 28N95W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted at the east and southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh N winds and 6 to 10 ft seas exist at the south-central and central Gulf. Light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds and large NW swell over mainly the southeast and south-central Gulf will subside this morning. Southerly flow will increase over the western Gulf tonight and Thu as high pressure over Texas shifts eastward toward the Carolinas, and low pressure develops over northwest Mexico. Looking ahead, patchy fog is possible over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of cold front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the Dominican Republic to northern Colombia. Converging southerly winds east of the cold front are producing isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Gulf of Venezuela and near the Virgin Islands. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas of 10 to 13 ft are present across the western portion of the basin mainly W of 79W. Elsewhere W of 73W, seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 7 ft prevail E of 73W. For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish through today as the front shifts eastward across the basin while weakening. Large northerly swell may impact Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean Thu and Fri. Looking ahead, fresh to strong trade winds and building seas are possible over the south- central Caribbean by late Fri, possibly reaching near gale-force off Colombia by Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the Gale Warning currently in effect. A low pressure complex prevails W of 60W, related to the Gale Warning described above. To the E, surface ridging prevails, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 30N22W. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas at 10 to 16 ft dominate N of 20N between 48W and 75W. Farther east, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are evident N of 20N between 35W and 48W. Gentle southerly winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate NW swell prevail E of 35W. For the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail from 07N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, the large area of gale-force winds and high seas will continue to spread across most of the open waters west of 65W today, associated with a strong low pressure area northeast of the northern Bahamas that will move to the northeast of Bermuda through today. Winds will diminish from west to east Thu and Fri as high pressure builds along 28N off the northern Bahamas. Wave heights will subside more gradually, with large northerly swell persisting into Sun. $$ ERA