000 AXNT20 KNHC 070503 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Feb 07 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A deep 992 mb occluded low off the southeastern U.S. near 30N72W is producing widespread near-gale to gale-force winds, along with high to very high seas of 12 to 23 ft northwest of a line from 26N79W to 28N73W to 31N69W, including the central and northwest Bahamas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found near this low north of 28N between 65.5W and 72W. As this low tracks east-northeastward through Wed morning, these winds and seas are going to spread eastward north of 25N to 66.5W. Staring Wed afternoon, this low is expected to slowly weaken while moving northeastward, which should allow marine conditions to gradually improve Wed afternoon through Thu. Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of days across the above basin, even outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and treacherous seas associated with this weather scenario. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Liberia coast near Monrovia, then extends west-southwestward to 06N14W. An ITCZ continues from 06N14W across 03N28W to 02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 01N to 05.5N between the west coast of Africa and 29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge runs southeastward from a 1022 mb high over Texas to the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are present at the east and southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh N winds and 6 to 9 ft seas exist at the south-central and central Gulf. Light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. With the exception of the Bay of Campeche where seas are to 9 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds and large NW swell over mainly the southeast and south-central Gulf will subside through early Wed. Southerly flow will increase over the western Gulf late Wed and Thu as high pressure over Texas shifts eastward toward the Carolinas, and low pressure develops over northwest Mexico. Looking ahead, patchy fog is possible over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of cold front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the Dominican Republic to northern Colombia. Converging southerly winds east of the cold front are producing isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Gulf of Venezuela and near the Virgin Islands. Fresh to near-gale NW to N winds and seas of 10 to 16 ft are present across the northwestern and southwestern basin, including the Yucatan Channel, Gulf of Honduras, and Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the south- central basin. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds follow the aforementioned front through Wed. Rough to very rough seas will also follow the front, with maximum wave heights near 16 ft between Honduras and Grand Cayman Island. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through mid week, as the front shifts eastward across the basin while weakening. Large northerly swell may impact Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean Thu and Fri. Looking ahead, fresh to strong trade winds and building seas are possible over the south- central Caribbean by late Fri, possibly reaching near gale-force off Colombia by Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning. An occluded front curves eastward from the 992 mb deep low mentioned in the Special Features section near 30N72W, then continues southwestward as a cold front to beyond Dominican Republic. A stationary front reaches eastward from 31N67W to a 1003 mb low near 29N62W, then a surface trough reaches east- northeastward to 30N49W. Another surface trough reaches southward to the Virgin Island from the same low. Converging southerly winds east of the cold front and near the surface troughs are triggering scattered moderate convection from the Virgin Islands to 31N between 58.5W and 65.5W. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas at 10 to 15 ft dominate north of 20N between 58W and 75W. Farther east, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are evident north of 20N between 42W and 58W. At the central Atlantic, a broad surface ridge is promoting gentle southerly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate NW swell north of 20N between 35W and 42W. For the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail from 07N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, a large area of gale-force winds and high seas will spread across most of the open waters west of 65W tonight, associated with a powerful low pressure area northeast of the northern Bahamas that will move to the northeast of Bermuda through Wed. Winds will diminish from west to east Thu and Fri as high pressure builds along 28N off the northern Bahamas. Wave heights will subside more gradually, with large northerly swell persisting into Sun. $$ KRV