000 AXNT20 KNHC 061730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Feb 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea: A cold front extends from southern Hispaniola to Costa Rica. Recent ASCAT data indicate that strong to gale-force W-NW winds are occurring behind the front, with the strongest winds occurring near the coast of Honduras. Rough to very rough seas will persist with these winds, peaking near 18 ft south of the Cayman Islands. The front is expected to push eastward and weaken, causing winds and seas to gradually subside during the next couple of days. Western Atlantic: An occluded low off the southeastern U.S. is producing a large area of gale-force winds and very rough seas on its west side, just off the Florida and Georgia coasts. Fresh to near gale-force winds are occurring elsewhere near the low. The low is also producing deep convection on its north side near the occluded front. The low is expected to move northeastward while it weakens during the next couple of days, resulting in gradually improving marine conditions over the western Atlantic. Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of days across the above basins, even outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and very rough seas associated with this weather scenario. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N10W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 03N51W. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong northerly winds continue across the eastern Gulf, generally east of 89W. This strong flow is causing rough seas of 8 to 12 ft, highest well off the coast of southwestern Florida and the Lower Florida Keys. The winds and seas are much lower across the western Gulf. Stable air and surface high pressure is supporting dry weather across the entire region. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NW winds prevail across the southern portion of the basin mainly S of 22N, along with rough to very rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish into mid week as high pressure builds over the basin. Southerly flow will increase over the western Gulf late Wed and Thu as low pressure develops over northeast Mexico and the southern Plains. Patchy fog is possible over the far west-central Gulf by Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the NW Caribbean. As mentioned above, the tail end of a cold front extends across the north-central and southwestern Caribbean Sea from Hispaniola to Costa Rica. Scattered showers are occurring near the boundary. Near gale-force northwesterly winds are occurring behind the front, outside of the gale warning area, causing very rough seas from 12 to 16 ft, roughly between Jamaica and Honduras. East of the front, winds and seas are considerably lower, except near the Windward Islands where fresh winds and moderate seas exist. For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish through mid week, as the aforementioned front shifts eastward across the basin while weakening. Looking ahead to Thu and Fri, large northerly swell may impact Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds and building seas are possible over the south-central Caribbean by late Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the W Atlantic. East of the gale-force low over the western Atlantic, weather conditions are generally quiet. High pressure and dry air aloft is supporting tranquil weather across the entire tropical Atlantic. Winds across that region are light to moderate, resulting in slight to moderate seas. A few weak surface troughs are causing patches of showers across the subtropics, north of 23N between 50W and 65W and north of 24N between 25W and 38W. Seas are moderate to rough across the subtropical Atlantic west of 50W and slight to moderate east of 50W. For the forecast W of 55W, a large area of gale-force winds and high seas will spread across most of the open waters west of 65W tonight. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east Thu and Fri as high pressure builds along 28N off the northern Bahamas. $$ Cangialosi/Delgado