000 AXNT20 KNHC 061025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Feb 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warnings for the northwestern Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean: These warnings are associated with a large, complex frontal system extending southwestward from off the Georgia/Florida coast across southern Florida and Cuba into the northwestern Caribbean. Caribbean Sea: A pair of cold fronts extend across the western Caribbean. Gale force winds are expected to continue today in the wake of the secondary front mainly N of 20N and W of 81W. Very rough seas of 8 to 19 ft will persist with these winds. As the fronts merge and push eastward while weaken by midweek, both winds and seas should steadily subside. Western Atlantic: A complex set of multiple lows are analyzed across the western Atlantic. This area of strong pressure gradient is supporting gale force winds N of 30N and W of 79W. Very rough to high seas will accompany these winds. The lows will merge within the next 24 hours while moving NE. Gale force winds will follow the new low as it progresses northeastward. These conditions will subside by midweek. Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of days across the above basins, even outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and very rough seas associated with this weather scenario. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N44W. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough curves northwestward from a 1003 mb near 25N79W to 25N91W. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas are evident from 21N-29N and W of 93W. Near-gale NW winds and very rough seas prevail across the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail with moderate to rough seas. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NW winds prevail across the southern portion of the basin mainly S of 22N, along with rough to very rough seas. Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the entire Gulf of Mexico due to the large area of rough to very rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish into mid week. Southerly flow will increase over the western Gulf late Wed and Thu as low pressure develops over northeast Mexico and the southern Plains. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the NW Caribbean. A cold front curves southwestward from eastern Cuba to near Belize. Another cold front curves southwestward from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to near-gale W to NW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted at the northwestern basin W of 74W, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, winds to gale force and rough to very rough seas will spread across the northwest Caribbean through today following a reinforcing cold front moving through the northwest Caribbean. The front will overtake the previous front reaching from eastern Cuba and southern Nicaragua. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the merged front across the southwest Caribbean through tonight. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through mid week, as the merged front shifts eastward across the basin while weakening. Looking ahead to Thu and Fri, large northerly swell may impact Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds and building seas are possible over the south-central Caribbean by late Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the W Atlantic. To the east of the complex low/frontal system analyzed across the western Atlantic, a 1005 mb is near 27N57W. A surface trough extends from 31N51W to the low to 22N71W. A surface ridge prevails to the E of the low/trough. Fresh to strong SW winds with 8 to 12 ft seas are evident near the low from 23N to 27N between 52W and 66W. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and 8 to 12 ft seas in large NW swell dominate north of 27N between 43W and 63W. Gentle to moderate ENE to E to S winds and 4 to 8 ft seas are present elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, mariners are urged to exercise caution as a powerful low pressure system prevails across the western Atlantic today, then reaching near Bermuda by early Wed. Expect strong gales W of 76W today and seas building in excess of 20 ft over the Gulf Stream off northeast Florida starting early Tue as the low system moves eastward. A large area of gale-force winds and high seas will spread across most of the open waters west of 65W tonight. The low pressure system will remain northeast of Bermuda from Wed and Thu, supporting a large field of strong winds and rough seas over much of the region mainly north of 22N and east of 75W. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east by midweek as high pressure builds across the region. $$ ERA