000 AXNT20 KNHC 060519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Feb 06 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warnings for the south-central Gulf of Mexico, northwestern Caribbean Sea, and western Atlantic Ocean: These warnings are associated with a large, complex frontal system extending southwestward from off the Georgia coast across southern Florida and Cuba into the northwestern Caribbean. Gulf of Mexico: A 1000 mb low pressure system is over the southeast Gulf near 26N82W. A cold front related to this low extends across the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the southeastern Gulf. Gale- force winds with very rough seas of 12 to 19 ft are found at the south-central and southeastern Gulf. Once this front has moved into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tue morning, marine conditions at these locations will gradually improve. Caribbean Sea: As the aforementioned cold front progresses southeastward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tue, expect gale winds and very rough seas of 8 to 17 ft to persist. As this front pushes farther eastward and weaken by midweek, both winds and seas should steadily subside. Western Atlantic: A pair of deep frontal lows, one off the Georgia coast near 31N78.5W and another one off southeast, Florida near 26.5N78.5W are going to gradually track eastward across the western Atlantic through Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen north of from 26N to 29N between 77W and the Florida coast. Similar convection is depicted from 23N and 31N between 71W and 76W including the Bahamas. As a result, gale to strong gale winds along with very high seas of 18 to 22 ft are expected north of 26N between the Florida coast/Bahamas and 67W from late tonight through Wed morning. Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of days across the above basins, even outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and very rough seas associated with this complex system. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Liberia coast just south of Monrovia and runs westward to 05N15W. An ITCZ continues from 05N15W across 03N30W to 02N44W. No significant convection is depicted in association with the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a deep 1000 mb low pressure and it related Gale Warning. A surface trough curves northwestward from a 1000 mb near 26N82W through the central Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present at the southeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft are also found at this location. Over the NE Gulf N to NE strong winds and seas 4 to 7 ft prevail. Fresh to strong NW winds and 7 to 12 ft seas are evident at the Bay of Campeche. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale NW to N winds and seas at 11 to 17 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, a 1000 mb low pressure system is over the southeast Gulf near 26N82W. A cold front related to this low extends across the NW Caribbean. Behind the front, gale force winds prevail across the Yucatan Channel, with rough to very rough seas S of 24N. These conditions will prevail through tonight mainly over the south-central and southeast Gulf as the low pressure and associated front move east of the basin. Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the entire Gulf of Mexico, including outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas associated with this weather scenario. Winds and seas will diminish into mid week. Southerly flow will increase over the western Gulf late Wed and Thu as low pressure develops over northeast Mexico and the southern Plains. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning. A cold front curves southwestward from eastern Cuba to near Belize. Another cold front curves southwestward from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft are noted at the northwestern basin, including the Cayman Islands. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW to W and 4 to 6 ft seas are present south of Jamaica and the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, winds to gale force and rough to very rough seas will spread across the northwest Caribbean into Tue following a reinforcing cold front moving through the northwest Caribbean. The front will overtake the previous front reaching from central Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the merged front across the southwest Caribbean through Tue night. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through mid week, as the front shifts eastward across the central Caribbean while weakening. Looking ahead to Thu and Fri, large northerly swell may impact Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds and building seas are possible over the south-central Caribbean by late Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning. Other than the complex frontal system mentioned in the Special Features section, a surface trough curves northeastward from the a warm front that its associated with a low pressure off the coasts of Georgia. Scattered moderate convection is depicted up near and south of these features from the southeast Bahamas to near 27N54W. At the central Atlantic, another surface trough curves southwestward from 23N46W to beyond 31N at 33W. Fresh to strong SW winds with 8 to 10 ft seas are evident near the 1005 mb low from 22N to 26N between 55W and 64W. W to NW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen off northeastern Florida and in the Great Bahama Bank. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and 9 to 12 ft seas in large NW swell dominate north of 27N between 45W and 67W. Gentle to moderate ENE to E to S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present across the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between the West coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, mariners are urged to exercise caution as a powerful low pressure over the northeast Gulf moves across Florida tonight and into the western Atlantic Tue, reaching near Bermuda by early Wed. Expect strong gales out of the north and seas building in excess of 20 ft over the Gulf Stream off northeast Florida starting early Tue as the low moves eastward. A large area of gale-force winds and high seas will spread across most of the open waters west of 65W through Tue night. The low pressure will remain northeast of Bermuda from Wed and Thu, supporting a large field of strong winds and rough seas over much of the region mainly north of 22N and east of 75W. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east as high pressure builds across the region. $$ KRV