000 AXNT20 KNHC 051013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Feb 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warnings are in effect for the Gulf of Mexico, northwestern Caribbean Sea, and western Atlantic Ocean. These warnings are associated with a deepening low pressure system and the associated cold front moving from the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. This system and a reinforcing system will bring hazardous marine conditions across parts of the forecast area through at least Tue night. Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of days across the Gulf of Mexico, the NW Caribbean and the western Atlantic outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds associated with the successive weather systems. The large wind fields will build very rough seas. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A deep low pressure system of 999 mb is located inland the Florida panhandle. Its attendant cold front extends from the low south-southwestward to 23N92W. Gale force winds and rough seas are already occurring W of the front, and will spread across the basin today and tonight. Caribbean Gale Warning: As the front mentioned above enters the W Caribbean today, winds are forecast to reach gale-force over the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean by this afternoon, with seas building as high as 18 or 19 ft in the Yucatan Channel late on Mon. Gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front over the northwester Caribbean Mon through Tue. Strong winds and rough seas behind the front will reach the north-central and southwestern Caribbean, including the waters between Cuba and Jamaica, and the Windward Passage Tue into Wed. Atlantic Gale Warning: A deep low pres will form and enter the W Atlantic on Mon night, with gale force winds and very rough seas developing across the area. The low and associated front will continue to move E across the Atlantic waters with between northeast Florida and Bermuda through midweek, bringing gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the western Atlantic. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this next system. It is possible that the stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Seas are forecast to build to 12-20 ft within the strongest winds, mainly north of 27N and west of 70W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 06N11W to 05N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N45W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the Gale Warning. The broad area of low pressure prevails across the basin. Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong NW winds and seas to 7 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, gale conditions will subside on Mon night. Surface ridging will then prevail across the basin through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A cold front extends across the NW Caribbean from 22N80W to 19N88W. Winds over the NW Caribbean have increased to moderate to fresh speeds as noted in the latest ASCAT data pass. Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft. Generally, light to gentle east to southeast winds are elsewhere across the basin, with seas of 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to move E ahead of a stronger, reinforcing front that moves through the Yucatan Channel today. The fronts will merge from central Cuba to northeast Nicaragua by late Mon, then reach from the Mona Passage to eastern Panama by late Tue. It should weaken as it moves through the eastern Caribbean through midweek. Gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front over the northwest Caribbean Mon through Tue. Winds and seas will gradually diminish as they spread across the western Caribbean into Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N79W to 23N79W. Fresh to strong SE winds are over the offshore waters of northeast Florida, while fresh southeast to south winds are south of there and west of 70W. Seas are up to 10 ft N of 29N. To the east of the Bahamas, a trough extends along 24N between 51W-66W. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the vicinity of the trough, with seas to 12 ft. In E-central Atlantic, a large trough is analyzed from near 31N38W to 18N54W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of the trough N of 22N. Otherwise, broad high pressure covers the eastern Atlantic east of the trough. The related gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds east of 35W, and northeast to east winds of similar speeds in the deep tropics. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will persist off the Florida east coast and across the Bahamas this morning behind the aforementioned cold front that currently extends from 31N79W to 23N79W. A deep low pres will form and enter the W Atlantic on Mon night, with gale force winds and very rough seas developing across the area. The low and associated front will continue to move E across the Atlantic waters with between northeast Florida and Bermuda through midweek, bringing gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the western Atlantic. $$ ERA