297 AXNT20 KNHC 041753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Feb 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warnings are in effect for the Gulf of Mexico, NW Caribbean Sea, and western Atlantic Ocean. These warnings are associated with a deepening low pressure system and the attendant cold front moving from the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. This system and a reinforcing system will bring hazardous marine conditions across parts of the forecast area through at least Tue night. Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of days across the Gulf of Mexico, the NW Caribbean and the western Atlantic outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds associated with the successive weather systems. The large wind fields will build very rough seas. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A deep low pressure system of 996 mb and attendant cold front is moving across the far eastern Gulf. At 2100 UTC, the low is centered near 29N85W with associated cold front extending from the low SW to the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters near 22N87W SW to a 1007 mb low near 20N92W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. A warm front also departs from the low SE to Cape Coral, Florida while a strong squall line races across S Florida and the Straits of Florida. Gale-force southerly winds are occurring ahead of the front and low pressure, in the Florida Big Bend adjacent waters to just N of Tampa Bay along with rough seas to 10 ft. Behind the front and E of 90W, fresh to strong winds are ongoing with rough seas to 9 ft. The deep low pressure system and attendant cold front will keep gale-force winds and rough seas in the eastern basin until late this afternoon when the cold front is expected to exit to the southeast of the Gulf. Afterward, a second deepening low pressure from southern Texas is going to migrate across the central and eastern Gulf tonight through Monday night. This next system will bring more gale winds and very rough seas for the central and southeastern Gulf. Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the entire Gulf of Mexico, including outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas associated with these successive weather systems. Caribbean Gale Warning: The weather pattern will change this afternoon as a cold front moves through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean. Deep low pressure N of the area will support strong W to NW winds and rough to very rough seas in the wake of the front over the NW Caribbean starting tonight. Winds are forecast to reach gale-force over the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean by Mon afternoon, with seas building as high as 18 or 20 ft in the Yucatan Channel late on Mon. Gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front over the NW Caribbean Mon into Tue. Strong winds and rough seas, behind the front, will reach the north-central and SW Caribbean, including also the waters between Cuba and Jamaica, and the Windward Passage Tue into Wed. Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front along 25N into central Florida will dissipate late today ahead of a deep low pressure system moving through the NE Gulf of Mexico. Southeast winds will increase and seas will build off the Florida east coast and across the Bahamas late today ahead of the low and associated cold front. These features will move between NE Florida and Bermuda through the early part of the week. Strong to gale force northerly winds are expected across the coastal waters of Florida Mon night into Tue. At the same time, strong westerly winds are forecast to affect the Bahamas and most of the waters S of 29N and W of 65W while strong to gale force winds are expected N of 29N. On Tue, seas will build to 12 to 20 ft within the strongest winds, and mainly N of 27N and W of 70W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N22W where the ITCZ continues along 04N36W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the axes E of 25W and between 40W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an ongoing and an upcoming gale warning. A deep low pressure system of 996 mb and attendant cold front is moving across the far eastern Gulf. At 2100 UTC, the low is centered near 29N85W with associated cold front extending from the low SW to the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters near 22N87W SW to a 1007 mb low near 20N92W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. A warm front also departs from the low SE to Cape Coral, Florida while a strong squall line races across S Florida and the Straits of Florida. Gale-force southerly winds are occurring ahead of the front and low pressure, in the Florida Big Bend adjacent waters to just N of Tampa Bay along with rough seas to 10 ft. Heavy showers are ongoing across the Florida Straits. Behind the front and E of 90W, fresh to strong winds are ongoing with rough seas to 9 ft. The tail of the next cold front extends from the SE coast of Texas near 29N94W SW to 27N97W. Fresh to strong W winds and seas to 6 ft follow this front. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight seas are between the offshore waters S of Tampico and Veracruz adjacent waters. For the forecast, the deep low pressure system and attendant cold front will keep gale-force winds and rough seas in the eastern basin until late this afternoon when the cold front is expected to exit to the southeast of the Gulf. Afterward, a second deepening low pressure from southern Texas is going to migrate across the central and eastern Gulf tonight through Monday night. This next system will bring more gale winds and very rough seas for the central and southeastern Gulf. Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the entire Gulf of Mexico, including outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas associated with these successive weather systems. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Gale Warning for the Yucatan Channel, and later on for the NW Caribbean. Southerly winds over the NW Caribbean are starting to increase from Nicaragua offshores to the Yucatan Channel and in the Windward Passage ahead of a cold front moving across the far eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data show light to gentle E to SE winds elsewhere except in the far SE Caribbean where SE winds are moderate to locally fresh and seas are 4-5 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean this afternoon, just ahead of a stronger, reinforcing front that moves through the Yucatan Channel tonight. The fronts will merge from eastern Cuba to northeast Nicaragua by late Mon, reach from the Mona Passage to the eastern Panama by late Tue, then weaken as it moves through the eastern Caribbean through mid week. Gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front over the NW Caribbean Mon into Tue. Winds and seas will gradually diminish as they spread across the western Caribbean into Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scatterometer data already show fresh to near gale-force SE winds over the NE Florida offshore waters N of Cape Canaveral and fresh to strong S winds elsewhere along the Florida seaboard. Seas over the offshores N of Cape Canaveral are rough to 9 ft. Farther east, a weakening cold front extends from 30N53W SW to 25N68W where it transitions to a weakening stationary front. Scatterometer data show moderate to fres W to NW winds W of this front, which is affecting the offhore zones N of 25N. In the Central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 30N39W SW to 16N55W, which is generating scattered showers N of 24N between 26W and 44W. The remainder subtropical E Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge that extends SW to the deep tropics. This is favoring gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds E of 35W and NE to E winds of similar speeds in the deep tropics. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front along 25N into central Florida will dissipate late today ahead of a deep low pressure system moving through the NE Gulf of Mexico. Southeast winds will continue to increase and expand in areal coverage off the Florida east coast and across the Bahamas ahead of the low and associated cold front. These features will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda through the early part of the week bringing gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas across the western Atlantic. $$ Ramos