000 AXNT20 KNHC 032339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Feb 04 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1001 mb has developed over the NW Gulf near 28N94W, with an attendant cold front extending from it to inland Texas just S of Brownsville. A warm front extends from the low east-southeastward to near 26N86W. Latest ASCAT data and buoy observations from this afternoon indicate fresh to strong winds north to northeast winds north of the cold front to a line from 30N95W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds are between the cold front and the warm front. Seas are 5-7 ft with these winds and 4-6 ft with the winds N of the cold front. The low will continue to move eastward across the northern Gulf tonight reaching the eastern Gulf Sun, with gale force winds expected overnight through early Sun morning. Seas will build to 8-10 ft across waters north of 24N between 84W-90W. This low will exit the basin by Sun night. Also on Sun night, a second and stronger low pressure system will move off the Louisiana coast into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Gales will pulse briefly in the central Gulf late Sun night through Mon morning. The low pressure will move into the western Atlantic on Mon. Westerly gales will begin Mon afternoon in the southeastern Gulf, Yucatan Channel, Straits of Florida and northwestern Caribbean Sea , with seas building to 12-18 ft. The westerly gale diminish Mon night, except in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Winds and seas are forecast to subside beginning on Tue. Mariners are urged to exercise caution over the next couple of days across the Gulf of Mexico, including outside of the gale warning areas due to the expansive area of strong to near-gale force winds associated with the successive weather systems. The large wind fields will build rough to very rough seas across much of the Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern Liberia to 04N12W. The ITCZ continues from 04N12W to 03N28W to 03N35W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 19W-29W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. The surface analysis has low pressure of 1001 mb over the NW Gulf near 28N94W, with an attendant cold front extending from it to inland Texas just S of Brownsville. A warm front extends from the low east-southeastward to near 26N86W. A squall line extends from near 28N92W to 26N96W. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms moving quickly eastward are noted north of 26N and between 85W-91W. Latest observations and ASCAT data indicate fresh to strong winds north to northeast winds north of the cold front to a line from 30N95W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds are between the cold front and the warm front. Seas are 5-7 ft with these winds and 4-6 ft with the winds N of the cold front. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds remain over most of the remaining Gulf waters, with 3-5 ft seas. The eastern Gulf has moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and seas of 3-6 ft. For the forecast, the deepening low pressure over the northwestern Gulf will reach the NE Gulf Sun. The associated cold front will move across the central Gulf tonight and into the eastern Gulf Sun, and then exit to the southeast of the Gulf Sun afternoon. Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf ahead of the front and low pressure, reaching gale force over the north- central and eastern Gulf tonight into Sun morning. Looking ahead, marine conditions across much of the Gulf will continue to deteriorate as strong to gale-force west to northwest winds behind the strong cold front persist Sun afternoon through Mon night. Marine conditions across the Gulf should begin to improve Tue as the front moves farther into the Caribbean Sea. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING for the Yucatan Channel, and later on for the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Satellite data received during the day reveals light to gentle trade wind across the Caribbean, except higher in speeds in the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 3-4 ft across the basin, with no significant convection noted on satellite. For the forecast, weak high pressure will support relatively benign marine conditions through this evening. The pattern will start to change late tonight as a cold front moves through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sun afternoon. Deep low pressure north of the area will support strong W to NW winds and rough to very rough seas following the front over the northwest Caribbean starting Sun night. Winds are forecast to reach gale force over the Yucatan Channel and the far northwest Caribbean by late Mon afternoon with seas building as high as 18 ft. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front into the southwest Caribbean Tue into Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from near 31N42W to 22N50W, where it transitions to stationary front to 17N55W and to a trough from there to near St. Lucia. Strong south winds continue ahead of the front. Seas 8-10 ft are north of 21N between 39W and 53W. Moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail in remaining waters. Another cold front extends from near 31N65W to 29N72W, and continues west-northwestward to inland the coast at the Georgia/ Florida. Numerous thunderstorms are ahead of the front within 30 nm of a line from 29.5N63W to 31N62W. Fresh to strong northwest winds are northwest of the front E of 72W, and moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are north of the front west of 72W. Seas are 6-9 ft east of 72W, and 4-6 ft west of 72W. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move south of 30N and east of 75W, then stall along 27N west of 55W Sun, then lift north Sun night ahead of a deep low pressure system moving through the northeastern Gulf. Southeast winds will increase and seas will build off the Florida east coast and across the Bahamas late Sun ahead of the low. The low pressure and an associated cold front will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda through the early part of the week, followed by northeast winds to gale force and rough to very rough seas across the western Atlantic. $$ Aguirre