000 AXNT20 KNHC 030634 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...COR NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Feb 03 2024 CORRECTED FOR THE SEA HEIGHTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... An Atlantic Ocean cold front is along 31N48W 26N50W 20N57W 17N60W, into the NE Caribbean Sea near 16N64W. The front is stationary from 16N64W, to SW Haiti. A surface trough is about 180 nm to the SE of the cold front from 14N63W northeastward. Expect from 28N northward between 46W and the cold front: gale- force S-to-SW winds, and rough seas in W swell. Expect elsewhere from 23N northward between the cold front and 42W: strong to near gale-force S-to-SW winds, and rough seas. Expect from 25N northward from the cold front to 58W: strong to near gale-force winds W-to-NW winds, and rough seas in W-to-NW swell. Elsewhere N of 18N and W of the cold front to a line 19N66W 27N74W 31N65W: fresh or slower winds, and rough to very rough seas in NW-to-N swell. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 22N northward between 30W and the trough/front. Isolated moderate is elsewhere: within 60 nm to the east of the surface trough; between the trough and the cold front; from the Cabo Verde Islands northward from the cold front eastward; and everywhere from the cold front westward and northwestward. Fresh SE winds are from 26N northward between 36W and 41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Expect in 24 hours, a cold front to be along 30N90W 21N97W. Gale-force SE-to-S winds, and sea heights ranging from moderate to close to rough, will be from 25N northward between 87W and the cold front. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern Liberia, to 04N11W. The ITCZ continues from 04N11W, to 03N20W, and along 03N to 36W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 04N between 20W and 32W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning, and the cold front. Strong to near gale-force SE winds are from 22N to 24N between 95W and the coast of Mexico. Fresh to strong SE winds are elsewhere to the east of Mexico from 19N to 25N between 95W and the coast of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 28N southward from 93W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow, and moderate or slower winds, span the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 29.5N 87.5W. Moderate sea heights are from 93W westward. Slight seas are elsewhere in the area. Weak high pressure over the north-central Gulf will shift east tonight ahead of a deep low pressure system that will move from the central Plains to across the lower Mississippi Valley by late Sat, and through the northeast Gulf by early Mon. An associated cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Sat, and exit to the southeast of the Gulf Sun afternoon. Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf ahead of the front and low pressure, reaching gale force over the north-central and eastern Gulf Sat night into Sun. Looking ahead, marine conditions will continue to deteriorate as the deep low pressure shifts into the Atlantic followed strong to gale-force NW winds along with rough to very rough seas over much of the Gulf Sun into Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 20N57W 17N60W, into the NE Caribbean Sea near 16N64W. The front is stationary from 16N64W, to SW Haiti. A surface trough is about 180 nm to the SE of the cold front from 14N63W northeastward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 17N to 22N between 60W and the Windward Passage. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, span the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the rest of the area. A stationary front over the far northeast Caribbean will dissipate through Sat. Weak high pressure north of the front will support relatively benign marine conditions into late Sat. The pattern will change Sun as a cold front moves through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean Sun afternoon. Looking ahead, deep low pressure north of the area will support strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas following the front over the northwest Caribbean starting Sun night. Winds may reach gale force late Mon over the Yucatan Channel and the far northwest Caribbean with seas building as high as 18 ft. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front into the southwest Caribbean Tue into Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning, and the cold front/surface trough. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the area. A cold front reaching from 21N55W to the Leeward Islands will slowly shift east of the area through late Sat. Another cold front will move south of 30N and west of Bermuda early Sat, then stall along 27N west of 55W Sun before lifting north Sun night ahead of a deep low pressure system moving through the northeast Gulf. SE winds will increase and seas will build off northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas late Sun ahead of the low. Looking ahead, the low pressure and an associated cold front will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda through the early part of the week, followed by NE winds to gale force and rough to very rough seas. $$ mt/gr