218 AXNT20 KNHC 021037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Feb 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a low pressure just west of Bermuda from 29N61W SW to 23N65W to Haiti adjacent waters. Scattered moderate convection continues to affect the region N of 26N from the front to 50W. Ongoing near gale to gale- force W to NW winds behind and ahead of the front will continue to affect the offshore zones N of 24N through Fri as the front continues an eastward track. Seas currently 12 to 14 ft will increase to up to 20 ft tonight into Fri. Winds will fall below gale-force Fri night, with gradually decreasing winds and diminishing seas into Sat. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southeast to south winds are expected to develop over the western Gulf tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sat. The front will move across the central Gulf Sat night, and across the eastern part of the basin on Sun. Winds ahead of the front are forecast to reach minimal gale force over the eastern Gulf Sat night with seas building to 10 ft. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues westward to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N26W to 03N40W. A surface trough is within the ITCZ and runs from 09N21W to 02N23W. Convection is limited. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Please, see the Special Features Section for more information. High pressure of 1019 mb located over the NE Gulf dominates the basin. Light and variable winds are noted under the influence of this system over the east and central Gulf while gentle to moderate southerly winds are over the western Gulf. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. Abundant cloudiness, with possible showers, covers the Gulf waters E of 87W and the northern Yucatan Peninsula, including the Yucatan Channel. These clouds are the result of strong SW winds aloft. For the forecast, high pressure over the region will shift E today. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the western Gulf tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sat. The front will move across the central Gulf Sat night, and across the eastern part of the basin on Sun. By Sun night, this cold front is expected to move E of the Gulf. On Sun, a low pressure system will move eastward across the N Gulf states bringing a very tight pressure gradient across the Gulf waters. Gale conditions and very rough seas are expected across parts of the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida Sun night and Mon. The low pressure will cross Florida and move into the western Atlantic likely late on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean while a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the basin, as a low pressure system moves eastward from the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic. Under this weather pattern, light to gentle winds are noted per scatterometer data over the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, with the exception of fresh trade winds near the coast of Colombia, in the lee of eastern Cuba, and between Haiti and Jamaica. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft over the SW Caribbean. Strong SW flow aloft is advecting tropical moisture from the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan Peninsula across west and central Cuba into the Bahamas. An approaching cold front is generating some cloudiness with possible showers over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola. Patches of low level moisture, with isolated to scattered passing showers, are noted elsewhere, more concentrated over the SW part of the basin. For the forecast, winds and seas are forecast to be relatively low through Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun evening, preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W of 75W. Behind the front, gale force westerly winds and rough to very rough seas are possible across the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Mon and Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gale Warning in effect for portions of the SW N Atlantic waters through today. A gale center of 996 mb is located SE of Bermuda near 31N61W. The associated cold front enters the forecast region near 31N54W and continues SW crossing just N of Puerto Rico and across the N coast of Hispaniola. A band of mainly low clouds with embedded showers is related to the front. Stiletto derived winds data provide observations of gale force on the south side of the low center and mainly N of 29N between 60W and 66W. Gale force winds are also noted ahead of the front N of 27N to 52W. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are within these winds. The low pressure and associated front are also producing a large area of fresh to strong winds that cover mainly the waters N of 22N between 50W and 70W with seas of 8 to 12 ft. An area of showers and thunderstorms is N of 25N ahead of the cold front to about 45W. The remainder of the western Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure situated over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Another ridge dominates the remainder of the east and central Atlantic. gentle to moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the tropical Atlantic. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed E of 35W. For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure E of Bermuda will move eastward just N of 31N today, before lifting NE away from the forecast waters. Strong to gale force cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas associated with this broad low pressure will continue to affect the waters north of 24N and E of 65W today. Another cold front will move southeastward across northern waters Fri night into Sat night, bringing fresh to strong west winds on both sides of the front north of 28N into Sun. Low pressure and a new frontal system will move across the northwest waters Mon through Tue night. Gale force winds and very rough seas will be possible with this system. $$ GR