000 AXNT20 KNHC 010604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Feb 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning... Expect W-to-NW gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, from 26N northward between 69W and 73W, from 01/0600 UTC until Thursday night. The area of gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas still, from 27N northward between 54W and 67W, will continue from Thursday night until Friday night. The marine conditions will improve considerably on Saturday, as a weak frontal system moves through the region. A first cold front passes through 31N71W, to the Bahamas near 24N76W, to Cuba near 21N79W. A second cold front is about 170 nm to the northwest of the first cold front. Strong to near gale-force winds are elsewhere from 25N northward from 68W westward. The winds are from the W and the SW to the east of the first cold front. The winds are from the W and the NW in the rest of the area. Moderate to fresh W and SW winds are from 22N to 25N between 68W and the first cold front. Moderate to rough seas in general are from 22N northward from 50W westward. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N17W and 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W, 02N27W 01N35W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N to 08N between 07W and 20W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Broken to overcast high level clouds are from 20N southward from 30W eastward, and they are moving toward the northeast. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through the Texas/Louisiana border, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico along 95W/96W. Moderate or slower anticyclonic winds are from 90W westward. Mostly moderate to some fresh northerly winds are elsewhere. Slight seas span the area. Weak high pressure is centered across eastern Texas. Aside from some moderate NW winds in the NE Gulf tonight, quiescent marine conditions will prevail through Fri as high pressure dominates. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the western Gulf Fri night, then shift east into Sun, in advance of a cold front. By Sun night, this cold front is expected to move E of the Gulf, with strong to near gale-force W to NW winds expanding across much of the basin Mon into Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 20N59W, to the NW corner of Puerto Rico. Rainshowers are possible from 17N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 59W and the Mona Passage. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the area. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from 10N to 14N between 81W and the coast of Central America from Costa Rica to Nicaragua. Mostly fresh to some moderate northerly winds are elsewhere from the Windward Passage westward. Fresh NE winds are within 125 nm to the north of the coast of Venezuela between 68W and 71W. Moderate or slower NE-to-E winds are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to rough seas are from the NE coast of Nicaragua southward from the Windward Passage westward. The comparatively highest sea heights are in the offshore waters of the east central coast of Nicaragua. Some moderate seas off the northern coast of Colombia. Slight to moderate seas cover the rest of the area. Fresh to locally strong N winds will continue offshore of Nicaragua through Thu morning, behind a dissipating frontal trough. The pressure gradient across the central Caribbean will force fresh to locally strong NE winds during the late nights and early mornings north of Colombia through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be quiescent through Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun evening, preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W of 75W. Strong to near gale- force westerly winds will build across the Yucatan Channel and extreme NW Caribbean late Mon. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will continue offshore of Nicaragua through Thu morning, behind a dissipating frontal trough. The pressure gradient across the central Caribbean will force fresh to locally strong NE winds during the late nights and early mornings north of Colombia through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be quiescent through Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun evening, preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W of 75W. Strong to near gale-force westerly winds will build across the Yucatan Channel and extreme NW Caribbean late Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the Atlantic Ocean, for the area that is about 500 nm to the east of the east central Florida coast, and about 320 nm to the NE of the central Bahamas. A cold front passes through 31N45W, to 26N50W, and 20N59W. A surface trough continues from 20N59W to the NW corner of Puerto Rico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward between 39W and the cold front. Isolated moderate in general is elsewhere from 20N northward between 30W and 60W. Rainshowers are possible from 17N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 59W and the Mona Passage. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 27N59W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is between the central Atlantic Ocean cold front, and the two cold fronts that are in the area of the gale- force wind warning. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 10N northward from the central Atlantic Ocean cold front eastward. Fresh NE winds are from 15N southward between 35W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough seas are from 06N to 10N between 50W and 55W. Moderate seas are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. A weakening cold front extending from 21N55W to just NE of the Virgin Islands will stall then dissipate Thu. Low pressure between Bermuda and South Carolina will ESE just N of 31N through Fri, before lifting NE away from the area. Strong to gale- force cyclonic winds will accompany this broad low pressure for waters N of 24N tonight into Fri. Marine conditions will improve Sat as another cold front moves E across the region. Low pressure and a new frontal system will move across the NW waters late Mon. $$ mt/sk