000 AXNT20 KNHC 310435 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jan 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure will exit the Carolina coast tonight, then move eastward along 32N and strengthen through Thu night. Strong to gale- force W to SW winds are anticipated north of 24N Wed night through Fri as the broad circulation moves across the area. Peak seas are forecast to build to 12 to 18 ft north of 28N between 61W and 74W. Marine conditions will improve considerably Sat and Sat night as the next weak frontal system moves E across the region. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast near 08N13W and extends southwestward to 04N21W. An ITCZ continues westward from 04N21W through 02N31W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near the monsoon trough from 02N to 06N and between 16W and 24W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ south of 05N between 28W and 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1023 mb high over the northwest Gulf near 27N95W. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow around the high pressure and slight to moderate seas prevail across the entire basin. For the forecast, a weak cold front will move southeastward across the NE Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wed. Aside from that, quiescent marine conditions will prevail into Fri night over the Gulf as high pressure dominates. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the W central Gulf Sat in advance of the next cold front, and shift eastward into Sun. By Sun night, this cold front may be crossing the Gulf, with strong W to NW winds behind it. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front stretches across Hispaniola with a surface trough extending across the Leeward Islands to near 16N64W. Fresh to strong NE winds are observed off the coast of Colombia, along with moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds are also observed in a recent scatterometer pass within the Windward passage. Elsewhere across the basin, gentle to moderate N to NE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh locally to strong N winds will continue W of 80W into Wed night. The pressure gradient across the central Caribbean will force fresh to locally strong NE winds during the late nights and early mornings north of Colombia through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be quiescent through Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun night, preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W of 75W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N54W to eastern Hispaniola with a prefrontal trough analyzed from 30N52W to the Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of the front to 45W, north of 22N. Strong to near-gale southerly winds are noted ahead of the front north of 24N and west of 49W, while fresh to strong W to NW winds are observed behind the front to 64W and north of 27N. Rough to very rough seas are noted ahead and behind the front north of 24N between 47W and 72W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge positioned near 34N32W. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh E trade winds south of 20N and moderate to rough seas. Elsewhere north of 20N, moderate or less winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from 27N55W to Dominican Republic will move SE and reach from 23N55W to Puerto Rico Wed, then stall and gradually dissipate. Near gale- force S to SW winds will continue east of the front and north of 28N tonight, with strong NW winds behind the front north of 27N. Complex low pressure will exit the Carolina coast tonight, then move eastward along 32N and strengthen through Thu night. Strong to gale- force W to SW winds are anticipated north of 24N Wed night through Fri as the broad circulation moves across the area. Marine conditions will improve considerably Sat and Sat night as the next weak frontal system moves E across the region. $$ Nepaul