000 AXNT20 KNHC 301619 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jan 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1605 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N58W to northern Hispaniola. Gale force southerly winds are developing ahead of this front N of 29N and W of 52W. These winds will prevail and progress as the front moves E, then diminish below gale late today. Seas of 11 to 14 ft are expected within the gale force wind area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues westward to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 01N33W and then to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 06N and east of 26W. Similar convection is noted south of the ITCZ and west of 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high pressure system located over the NW Gulf of Mexico dominates the basin. The cool and dry continental airmass moving across the Gulf is producing a vast layer of stratocumulus clouds, but no deep convection. The relaxed pressure gradient allows for mainly light to gentle anticyclonic winds. Seas of 4-6 ft are present south of 26N and east of 91W, while slight seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak cold front will move eastward across the NE Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wed bringing with it fresh NW winds. Aside from that, quiescent marine conditions will prevail into Fri night over the Gulf as high pressure dominates. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE to S winds and active weather are expected to develop over the W central Gulf Sat in advance of the next cold front, and shift eastward through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front divides the Caribbean Sea, stretching from Haiti to southern Nicaragua. The cool and dry continental airmass supports stratocumulus clouds behind the frontal boundary. A prefrontal trough stretches from the Leeward Islands to 31N55W result in a few showers affecting the island arc. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong northerly winds behind the stationary front, south of 20N. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh E-NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present in the south-central and SW Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh N winds will continue W of 80W and within 150 nm N of a cold front extending from Haiti to SE Nicaragua through Wed night. The front will drift S to the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border and gradually dissipate through Thu morning. The pressure gradient across the central Caribbean will force fresh to locally strong NE winds during the late nights and early mornings north of Colombia through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be quiescent into late week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features Section for details on a Gale Warning over portions of Atlantic waters SE of Bermuda today. A cold front extends from 31N58W to northern Hispaniola. A prefrontal trough is analyzed from the Leeward Islands to 31N55W. Scattered moderate convection is evident north of 24N, east of the front to 51W. Aside from the area of gales, a recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to near gale-force S-SW winds are ongoing north of 21N and between the front and 45W. Seas in these waters are 8-14 ft, with the highest seas near 31N54W. Behind the front, fresh to strong N winds are found north of 23N and west to 73W. Seas are 8-13 ft in the area described, with the highest seas occurring near 31N68W. Elsewhere to the west of the front, moderate or weaker northerly winds and moderate seas prevail. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge positioned near 29N25W. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 24N and seas of 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, slight to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from 24N55W to the Virgin Islands Wed morning. Gale to near gale- force S to SW winds will continue east of the front and north of 27N through this afternoon, with strong NW winds behind the front north of 27N. Conditions will improve Wed, when the cold front moves east of 55W. Complex low pressure will exit the Carolina coast tonight and move eastward along 31N-32N through Fri. Strong to near gale- force W winds are anticipated north of 24N Wed through Fri. Marine conditions will improve considerably Sat and Sat night as the next weak frontal system moves E across the region. $$ Delgado