000
AXNT20 KNHC 280531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jan 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from the coast of Cameron near 03N08E to 06N13W
to 03N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-06N
between 12W-20W. No monsoon trough is analyzed at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida panhandle
near 30N86W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N92W. Scattered showers
are occurring within 30 NM of the front. While winds ahead of the
front are light to gentle, the NW to N winds behind the front are
fresh to strong. Seas are 2-4 ft ahead of the front and 5-8 ft
behind the front. 

For the forecast, the cold front will quickly move SE and out of 
the area by Sun night. Ahead of it, some thunderstorms are 
expected in the NE Gulf, with fog also anticipated offshore the 
Florida Peninsula. Behind the front, fresh to strong NW to N winds
will prevail into Sun night. In the wake of the cold front, high 
pressure will build into the region, leading to quiescent 
conditions by Mon night and continuing through much of next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Bermuda High near 29N63W
and troughing over Colombia is forcing fresh to strong trades
across the central and E Caribbean. Seas are 7-10 ft over the 
central Caribbean and 5-8 over the E Caribbean. Over the W 
Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate and seas are 3-6 ft. No
significant deep convection is occurring over the basin this
evening. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong Bermuda 
High and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong
trades over the south-central Caribbean through Sun, pulsing to 
near gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight. The Bermuda 
High will shift eastward and weaken Sun night, decreasing the 
tradewinds with improved conditions expected through Tue night. A 
cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sun evening followed by 
fresh to locally strong N winds in its wake across the NW 
Caribbean through Tue night. The front will stall and weaken from 
E Cuba to E Honduras Wed. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive 1026 mb Bermuda High is centered near 29N63W with
associated ridging extending westward to the Florida peninsula
near 29N81W and east-southeastward to 23N27W. South of the
ridging, the trades are moderate to fresh, with the exception of
strong trades just north of Hispaniola. Seas are 6-8 ft south of 
the ridge, and 3-5 ft along and north of the ridge. Farther east, 
a surface trough extends from 31N24W to 20N30W to 18N45W. While 
winds are gentle to moderate associated with the trough, moderate 
NW swell are forcing 6-9 ft seas north of 20N east of 40W. No 
significant convection is occurring aside from that associated 
with the ITCZ.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will weaken and 
shift eastward ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of 
Florida Sun. SW winds will strengthen to fresh or strong tonight 
over the waters north of the Bahamas ahead of the front. The front
will quickly move eastward, extending from near Bermuda to E Cuba
Mon night, from 30N55W to Hispaniola Tue night, and stall from 
25N55W to the Mona Passage Wed where it will weaken. Strong NW 
winds will prevail both ahead of and behind the front north of 26N
Sun through Tue night. Low pres is likely to develop off the 
Carolinas the middle of next week, bringing an increase in winds N
of the Bahamas Wed into Thu, with the strong winds shifting 
eastward N of 26N Thu night. 

$$
Landsea/Konarik