364 AXNT20 KNHC 271730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jan 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning... NE-to-E gale-force winds have been pulsing, in the coastal waters of NW Colombia between 74W and 76W, during the last few days. Those wind speeds are forecast to be slowing down during the next few hours. Expect strong to near gale-force NE-to-E winds, and rough seas, from 10N to 14N between 74W and 78W off the coast of Colombia, during the next 24 hours to 48 hours or so. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ passes through the Prime Meridian along 03N, to 06N14W 06N27W 03N31W 02N37W. A surface trough is along 36W/38W from 02N to 06N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward in general, and primarily from 50W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is passing through the central coastal sections of Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. Rough seas are in the north central Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are elsewhere in the central one-third of the area. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong northerly winds are to the northwest of the cold front. Moderate to fresh SE winds are to the east of the cold front. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 26N northward between 87W and 91W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate is elsewhere from 22N northward between 90W and the cold front. A cold front from Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico will race eastward today and tonight, with scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms expected ahead of it over the north-central and NE Gulf of Mexico. These thunderstorms may bring locally hazardous winds and seas. Also ahead of the cold front, areas of fog will prevail over the far northern Gulf today. Behind the cold front, fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected until the front moves SE of the area Sun. A period of near gale force N winds is likely offshore Veracruz, Mexico, tonight into Sun. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build into the region, leading to quiescent conditions by early next week and continuing through much of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the area. The pressure gradient between a strong Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia will support widespread strong to near gale trades over the south-central Caribbean through Sun. Gale force winds offshore Colombia will diminish this morning. The Bermuda High will shift eastward and weaken Sun night, decreasing the tradewinds with improved conditions expected through Tue night. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sun evening followed by fresh to locally strong N winds in its wake across the NW Caribbean through Tue night. The front will stall and weaken from E Cuba to E Honduras Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough curves through 31N26W, to 23N30W 17N40W 14N45W 09N48W. The trough is marked in the visible satellite imagery by a thin line of low level clouds. Strong and faster cyclonic wind flow is from 29N northward between the surface trough and 35W. Rough seas are from the line 31N20W 25N26W 22N38W 23N50W northward. Moderate seas cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 13N to 16N between 57W and 61W at the edge of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands from St. Lucia to Dominica. Fresh to strong NE winds also are from 12N32W 24N46W 23N60W southward. Moderate or slower winds cover the rest of the area. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 25N northward between 20W and 30W. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 30N63W. Fresh anticyclonic wind flow is from 25N southward from 60W westward. A strong Bermuda High will support fresh trades south of 22N today. As the Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward, the trades will diminish tonight through Sun. SW winds will strengthen to fresh or strong tonight over the waters north of the Bahamas ahead of an approaching cold front. The front should reach the Florida coast Sun and quickly move eastward, extending from near Bermuda to Haiti Mon night. Strong NW winds will follow behind the front north of 26N Sun through Tue. $$ mt/al