000 AXNT20 KNHC 270603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jan 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning Recent buoy observations noted gale-force easterly winds in the wake of strong southward-moving thunderstorms and an associated outflow boundary in the central Gulf of Mexico, south of eastern Louisiana. These winds may continue through the night before diminishing early Sat. Additional strong thunderstorms are possible in the NE Gulf Sat into Sat night, ahead of a cold front that will move SE through the basin through Sun. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Strong NE to E gale-force across the near and offshore waters of NW Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight as an Atlantic high pressure ridge remains N of the area. Very rough seas to 11 ft persist within about 240 nm off the coast of Colombia between 73W and 79W. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, rough seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail from the Greater Antilles southward between 65W Anegada Passage and 82W. Winds and seas will diminish basin-wide Sun through Mon as the high pressure ridge N of the region shifts E and weakens, and a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico and enters the NW Caribbean. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near 07N15W and extends to 06N30W and to 01N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 21W and 34W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the Special Features section for details about the gale-force wind warning in the central Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front draped over the NW Gulf recently started to move dip south as a cold front, stretching from Galveston, TX, to the Texas/Mexico border. Moderate northerly winds are noted behind this boundary. Outside of the gale force winds, moderate to fresh easterly flow is noted over a majority of the basin by a recent scatterometer pass. Lighter winds are noted over the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except below 3 ft noted in buoy observations in the NE Gulf. Areas of fog will prevail over the far northern Gulf tonight. For the forecast, Winds behind the cold front will generally be NW to N fresh to strong, except for near gale N winds near Veracruz Sat night into Sun. In the extended range, conditions across the Gulf are forecast to become quiescent for much of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the Special Features section for details about the gale-force wind warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between a strong Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia supports widespread strong to near gale trades over the eastern and central basin, including over the Windward, Mona, and Anegada Passages. Sea of 8 to 11 ft are noted between 70W and 80W, and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted east of 70W over the eastern basin. Fresh to strong winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are in the NW portions of the basin. Strong to near gale force winds will continue over the central and eastern basin through Sat night. By Sun, as the Bermuda High shifts eastward and weakens, the trades will diminish, with improved conditions through Tue. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sun night followed by fresh N winds in its wake across the NW Caribbean early next week. The front will stall and weaken from E Cuba to E Honduras early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong 1028 mb Bermuda High dominates the SW Atlantic waters, supporting fresh easterlies south of 24N and west of 45W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate or less winds are north of 24N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Farther east, a low pressure center is forcing a weak frontal boundary to dip south, stretching from 31N30W to 20N38W. Fresh to strong westerly winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are noted behind the boundary north of 25N and east of 40W. Fresh southerly winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are noted ahead of the low, north of 25N and west of 22W. For the forecast west of 55W, the strong Bermuda High will support fresh to locally strong trades mainly across the waters south of 22N tonight. As the Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward, the trades will diminish tonight into Sun night. Beginning Sat night, SW winds will strengthen to fresh or strong over the waters north of the Bahamas ahead of an approaching cold front. The front should reach the Florida coast Sun and quickly move eastward, extending from near Bermuda to Haiti Mon night. Strong NW winds will follow behind the front north of 26N Sun into Tue. $$ Mora