000 AXNT20 KNHC 241021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jan 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of northwestern Colombia each night through Fri night. Gale force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela this evening. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured a large area of gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are forecast to peak at 14 to 16 ft offshore NW Colombia, and 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela during the period of gale force winds. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 03N24W. The ITCZ extends from 03N24W to 02N35W and to 02N50W. No deep convection is observed along the monsoon trough or ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A large high pressure system centered near Bermuda extends a ridge across the Gulf region, producing fresh to strong E to SE winds over the eastern half of the Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and moderate to fresh SE winds over the western half of the basin. Seas are 8 to 9 ft E of 90W, and 5 to 8 ft W of 90W, except in the Bay of Campeche where seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are in the Straits of Florida. Some shower activity is near the coast of Texas while dense marine fog is expected within about 30 nm of the coast from Mobile, Alabama to Brownsville, Texas through mid-morning. Visibility will be reduce to one quarter mile or less in dense fog. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic combined with lower pressures over Texas and Mexico will continue to support fresh to locally strong E to SE winds across most of the Gulf waters today. Winds will diminish a bit by late today before a weak cold front moves into the NW Gulf late tonight. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico late Thu before stalling. Another cold front will reach the NW Gulf late Fri night, extend from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico on Sat, and from Tampa Bay to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Sun. Fresh NW to N winds will follow this front across the Gulf of Mexico, with strong winds in the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning. Gale-force winds are occurring over the south-central Caribbean due to the tight pressure gradient between a large high pressure system over the western Atlantic, located near Bermuda, and the Colombian low. This weather pattern also supports fresh to strong winds over most of the basin, including the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the central Caribbean are 10 to 16 ft, with the highest seas near the coast of Colombia. Seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail elsewhere S of 18N and E of 83W. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted in the NW Caribbean, and in the Windward Passage. A stationary front extends along the north coast of Hispaniola helping to induce some shower activity. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted elsewhere producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong trade winds and rough seas over most of the basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras, through at least Thu. Pulsing gale conditions are forecast during the nighttime through the morning hours near the coast of Colombia through Fri night, along with rough seas. Gale conditions are also expected to pulse in the Gulf of Venezuela this evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N34W and continues southwestward to 21N50W, where it becomes a stationary front to the north coast of Hispaniola. A strong high pressure of 1036 mb located near Bermuda is observed in the wake of the front. The pressure gradient between this system and the front is producing a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly S of 27N and W of 55W, with seas of 8 to 12 ft outside of the Bahamas. The highest seas of 11 to 12 ft are noted NE of Puerto Rico based on an altimeter pass. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are also noted behind the front E of 55W, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Satellite derived wind data indicate an area of fresh to strong winds S of the aforementioned stationary front to about 14N and W of 48W. Seas in this region are 8 to 11 ft according to an altimeter pass. Seas of 7 to 10 ft, in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell, prevail elsewhere across most of the waters SE of the front and W of 35W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast discussion is dominated by another strong high pressure of 1036 mb located NE of the Madeira Islands near 37N11W. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 8 to 9 ft N of the Cabo Verde Islands and E of 35W. For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from near 20N55W to the north coast of Hispaniola. The front will sink southward today reaching the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will continue to bring strong trade winds and rough seas mainly across the waters S of 25N through tonight. Winds and seas will then gradually decrease toward the end of the week as the high pressure weakens. Looking ahead, the next cold front should emerge off the coast of NE Florida by Sun $$ GR