000 AXNT20 KNHC 222121 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jan 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support pulsing gale- force winds off the coast of northwestern Colombia every night through Fri night. Gale force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Tuesday night. Seas are forecast to peak near 14 to 17 ft offshore from northwestern Colombia and 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela during the period of gale force winds. Atlantic Significant Swell: Large NW swell from the north-central Atlantic will produce seas in the 12 to 14 ft seas across the waters north of 28N between 48W and 61W. Seas over these waters will subside through the overnight hours, decreasing below 12 ft by Tue morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the items above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10.5N15W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 04N24W to 04N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 18N between 16W and 25W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong anticyclonic wind flow prevails across much of the Gulf waters. Seas are mainly in the 8-11 ft range, reaching near 12 ft over the SW Gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure east of the area and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico will lead to a continuation of fresh to strong SE winds across most of the Gulf through at least Tue night. A cluster of thunderstorms near a sharp surface trough is likely to affect portions of the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico tonight through Tue, bringing strong to near-gale force winds. Winds will diminish a bit by late Wed before a weak cold front moves into the NW Gulf toward the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. A dissipating stationary front extends from northern Hispaniola to south of the Yucatan Channel. Aside from the near-gale to gale force winds off Colombia, fresh to strong winds prevail across the central and western Caribbean with fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern Caribbean. Aside from the area of 12 ft or greater seas off Colombia, seas of 8-11 ft prevail over the central and western Caribbean, with seas of 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will lead to a continuation of strong trade winds and rough seas over most of the basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras, through at least Thu. Pulsing gale conditions are forecast during the nighttime through the morning hours near the coast of Colombia through Fri night, along with rough seas. Gale conditions are also expected to pulse in the Gulf of Venezuela this evening and again Tue evening. A stationary front currently extending from northern Haiti to 19N87W will gradually dissipate, allowing strong winds in the NW Caribbean and lee of Cuba to diminish a bit Tue afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about significant NW swell. A cold front extends from near 24N55W to 20N67W, where it becomes stationary to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong winds are noted W of the front and S of 25N, with moderate to fresh winds W of the front and N of 25N. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of 22N and E of 26W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Aside from the area of 12 ft or greater seas, seas in the 8-11 ft range prevail over much of the waters W of the front. Seas of 8-12 ft are found N of 16N and E of 40W. Elsewhere, seas of 6-9 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will extend from 22N55W to the Windward Passage early Tue, then dissipate by Wed. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will support the continuation of strong trade winds and rough seas through Tue night or Wed to the southern waters, south of 25N. Winds and seas will then gradually decrease during the second half of the week. $$ AL