000 AXNT20 KNHC 221028 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jan 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure of 1042 mb moving eastward from the SE United States into the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia every night through Fri night. Seas are forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft within the strongest winds. Gale conditions are also expected briefly in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and again Tue night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N30W to 00N43W. Convection is limited. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure of 1042 mb located over the Carolinas extends a ridge across most of the Gulf region. A weak 1019 mb low pressure is analyzed along the coast of Texas near Corpus Christi, with a stationary front extending southward toward NE Mexico. Recent scatterometer data and buoy observations provide observations of fresh to strong E to SE winds across most of the Gulf waters, including the Straits of Florida where east winds of 25 to 30 kt are blowing, with seas building to 9 to 11 ft. Strong winds aloft, associated with a subtropical jet stream branch are advecting abundant tropical moisture over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern is favorable for generating areas of rain with embedded showers. For the forecast, strong high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through at least Tue supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas. The area of high pressure will then move eastward, veering winds over the Gulf waters. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf toward the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean. A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the coast of central Belize, where a few showers are seen. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong trade winds dominate the remainder the basin, with minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Satellite derived wind data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. Seas are 8 to 12 ft over the central Caribbean S of 16N, with seas of 12 to 14 ft within the area of gale force winds, outside the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are observed in the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Windward Passage, with seas to 8 ft. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. These patches of moisture are more concentrated over the Lesser Antilles, and in the vicinity of the above mentioned cold front. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will gradually weaken. Strong high pressure of 1042 mb moving eastward from the SE United States into the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over most of the basin, including the Windward Passage through at least mid- week. Pulsing gale conditions and rough seas are forecast at night near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Gale conditions are also expected briefly in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 30N50W to eastern Cuba where it transitions to a stationary front. Strong high pressure of 1042 mb currently located over the Carolinas follows the front. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds in the wake of the front, with seas of 10 to 15 ft N of the front and E of 65W based on a couple of altimeter passes. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted elsewhere behind the front and E of the Bahamas. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of another strong high pressure of 1037 mb located N of the Madeira Islands near 36N16W. Fresh to strong NE winds are observed N of 20N and E of 30W. These winds are also affecting the offshore waters of Morocco and Western Sahara where seas are in the 9 to 13 ft range according to altimeter data. Seas of 8 to 11 ft dominate most of the waters N of the Cabo Verde Islands and E of 35W. For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will gradually weaken early this week. The weakening frontal boundary is forecast to sink southwards reaching the NE Caribbean, including the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed. Strong high pressure of 1042 mb building in the wake of this front will bring an increase in winds and seas for the early to middle part of next week. Winds and seas will then gradually decrease the second half of the week. $$ GR