000 AXNT20 KNHC 190517 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jan 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Trade winds offshore northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale- force tonight through early Friday morning. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft under the strongest winds. Winds should decrease below gale-force from late Friday morning through the afternoon, but seas will remain rough. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf on Friday morning and continue moving southward through late Friday night. NW to N winds behind this front are expected to reach gale-force across the west-central Gulf on Friday and southwestern Gulf Friday night and Saturday. Combined seas will build to between 8 and 11 ft during this period. Afterward, fresh to strong NE to SE winds and rough seas will persist through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, then reaches southwestward to 06N15.5W. The ITCZ continues southwestward from 06N15.5W to 02.5N29W to 0.5N44W. Scattered showers within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming Gale Warning. A surface ridge extends southwestward from a high over the Carolinas coast to near Tampico, Mexico. This surface ridge is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas to 4 ft across the entire basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridge will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds in the basin through early Fri morning. A strong cold front will push into the far northern Gulf late tonight, reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to Brownsville early Fri, from the Florida Keys to the SW Gulf by early Fri evening, from the Straits of Florida to near the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat and to just southeast of the area by late Sat. Fresh to near gale winds and rough seas will follow behind the front. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected in the far west-central Gulf near Tampico and in the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Looking ahead into early next week, strong high pressure in the wake of the front should keep fresh to strong winds across the entire Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. A typical trade-wind regime is supported across the basin by ridging over the western Atlantic. Strong to near-gale NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft are found across the central part of the basin while fresh trades covers the E and SW Caribbean waters with seas in the 5 to 8 ft range. In the NW Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, high pressure northeast of the area combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri night. Winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight. The high pressure will also cause fresh to strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat. A cold front is forecast to move into the northwestern Caribbean on Sat, reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Sat night and become stationary from near the Windward Passage to near Jamaica and to near northern Belize on Sun. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas are anticipated behind this front. Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic early next week, with the resultant tight gradient likely leading to fresh to strong trade winds and building seas across the central and eastern basin through early next week, with gale conditions possible near the coast of Colombia. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N53.5W to 29N60W, then continues as a stationary front to the Upper Florida Keys. Over the E subtropical Atlantic waters a cold front extends from 31N13.5W SW to 26.5N18W where it starts to dissipate. While, a surface ridge covers the remaining subtropical waters being anchored by a 1028 mb high near 28N38W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the E Atlantic cold front is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 11 ft between 25W and 35W, N of 18N. In the tropics, between 00N and 18 N, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas to 10 ft as well. Otherwise, trades are moderate to fresh S of 24N and E of the southern Bahamas, except for locally strong winds N of Hispaniola. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary boundary will begin to lift northward as a warm front. A strong cold front is expected to move across the waters offshore northern Florida on Fri. The front is forecast to reach the far southern waters by late Sun and become stationary. Strong high pressure building in behind this front will result in increasing winds and building seas north of about 27N into early next week. A tight gradient associated to the high pressure will allow for northeast to east winds to increase to fresh to strong over the waters south of 26N early next week. $$ KRV