000 AXNT20 KNHC 180549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jan 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning... Expect gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, from 10N to 16N between 74W and 76W. Expect strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, elsewhere, from 10N to 18N between 73W and 79W. Expect in the remainder of the area: fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in E swell, from 10N to 17N between 77W and 82W. Fresh NE winds now are from 70W eastward. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh NE winds are in the SW corner of the area. Moderate seas are elsewhere from Jamaica southward from Central America eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the nighttime and early morning hours through Thu night. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 07N13W 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W, to 04N28W and 02N43W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the ITCZ to 05N between 25W and 41W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds cover the area. Rough seas are in the SW corner of the area. Moderate to rough seas cover the rest of the southern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas are in the northern half of the area. A stationary front passes through the southern part of Andros Island, to NW Cuba, to the central sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough curves from the SW corner of the area to the middle Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible throughout the area. A surface ridge, extending southwestward from a SE U.S.A. high pressure center, dominates much of the Gulf with moderate to fresh N to NE winds, except S of 24N where fresh to strong NW to N winds prevail. The ridge will move eastward toward the Carolinas by tonight. The result is that the winds will veer to the E and SE with improving marine conditions. The next cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf by late Thu, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico by Fri morning, and the far southeastern Gulf by Fri night into Sat morning. Gale-force winds and building seas are expected in the southwestern Gulf, in the wake of the front, Fri night into Sat morning. Strong high pressure will follow the front, keeping fresh to strong winds in most of the Gulf waters through Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning. A stationary front passes through the southern part of Andros Island in the Bahamas, through NW Cuba, to the central sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the stationary front. A surface trough extends from the eastern half of Honduras, through Belize, through the northern parts of Guatemala, beyond the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and into the western part of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the area. High pressure NE of the area combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri. The winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the nighttime and early morning hours through Thu night. The high pressure also will cause fresh to strong trades, and moderate to rough seas, just east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. A cold front is forecast to reach the northwestern Caribbean on Sat, reaching from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Sat night while gradually weakening. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front is expected to bring fresh to strong winds and building seas across most of the basin through Mon, with gale conditions possible near the coast of Colombia. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N63W, to 26N73W. The front becomes stationary, from 26N73W, to the southern part of Andros Island, to NW Cuba, to the central sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh NE winds are on the NW side of the frontal boundary. Mostly moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds, and moderate seas are from 20N northward from 45W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N northward between 54W and 70W. The cold front passed through Bermuda during the last 24 hours. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 18/0000 UTC are: 0.72 in Bermuda, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A cold front passes through 31N22W, to 25N40W 22N40W 23N45W. A surface trough is about 240 nm to the southeast of the cold front from 19N northeastward. Strong NW to N winds are from 28N northward between 27W and 33W. Fresh northerly winds are elsewhere from the cold front northward between 25W and 38W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward from 30W eastward. Fresh NE winds are in the area that is bounded by 22N60W 22N52W 21N41W 19N27W 08N36W 03N51W 09N60W 22N60W. Moderate to rough seas are from 25N northward between 30W and 45W, and from 23N northward between 20W and 30W. Moderate or slower winds, and moderate seas, cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N63W to 26N73W, then continues as a stationary front across the central Bahamas to western Cuba. The cold front portion will move eastward and extend from 31N57W to near 26N73W on Thu morning. On Thu afternoon, the entire portion will become stationary and begin to move northward, before the next cold front that is forecast to enter the northeast Florida offshore waters on Fri. This front will cause winds and seas to build once again near this front north of 27N. High pressure building east of the front is going to keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands through Fri. $$ mt/pc