000 AXNT20 KNHC 171655 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jan 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong NE trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea through the weekend. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of NW Colombia tonight until early Thu and then Thursday night. Seas in the strongest winds will peak near 14 ft. Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 05N10W and continues westward to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to 03N33W and to 03N51W. No deep convection is observed near the monsoon trough or ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Straits to NE Yucatan. The continental cold air flowing over the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico result in stratocumulus clouds covering most of the basin. No deep convection is present with this cloudmass. The 1031 mb high pressure over the Mississippi Valley dominates the Gulf waters behind the front. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and the front sustain fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the Gulf. The strongest winds and highest seas are present in the SW Gulf. However, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the NW Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf waters producing moderate to fresh northerly winds, except in the SW Gulf where fresh to strong NW to N winds prevail. The high pressure will move eastward towards the Carolinas by this evening. As a result, winds will veer to the E and SE with improving marine conditions. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf by late Thu, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico by Fri morning, and the far SE Gulf by Fri night. Gale-force winds and building seas are expected over the SW Gulf, in the wake of the front, Fri night into Sat morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning off NW Colombia. A cold front is approaching the NW Caribbean Sea, stretching the Florida Straits to NE Yucatan. No deep convection is evident on latest satellite imagery along this boundary. However, a surface trough along the northern coast of Honduras and low-level moisture moving westward with the trade winds support a few showers in the NW Caribbean. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a 1031 mb high pressure system over the central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the previously-mentioned ridge and lower pressures in northern South America support strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted in the north-central Caribbean and Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present in the eastern and SW Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure NE of the area combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri. Winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale- force during the nighttime and early morning hours through Thu night. The high pressure will also cause fresh to strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N72W and continues southwestward to the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of the front and north of 26N. The pressure gradient between the 1031 mb high pressure system in the central Atlantic and the aforementioned front support fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front to 59W and north of 26N. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft with the highest seas occurring near 31N69W. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds and seas of 4-8 ft are noted behind the front. Farther east, a weak cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N30W and continues southwestward to 26N42W, where it becomes a stationary front to 24N53W. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 7-11 ft are found north of the cold front, especially east of 40W. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are evident south of 22N and west of 35W, along with seas of 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned front in the western Atlantic will move eastward and extend from 31N65W to the central Bahamas and western Cuba this afternoon, then from 31N57W to the central Bahamas on Thu morning. It should finally become stationary and dissipate across the western Atlantic Thu afternoon into evening. Fresh to strong winds on either side of the front will shift eastward across the western Atlantic through early this evening while diminishing. High pressure building east of the front is going to keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands through Fri. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to enter the northeast Florida offshore waters on Fri. This will cause winds and seas to build once again near this front north of 27N. $$ Delgado