000 AXNT20 KNHC 170543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jan 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning... Expect gale-force NE winds, and rough seas, from 11N to 11.5N between 74.5W and 75.5W. Expect strong NE winds, and rough seas, elsewhere, from 10N to 18N between 66W and 79W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. Expect in the remainder of the area: fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in E swell, from 10N to 18N between 65W and 81W. Fresh to strong NE winds now are from 67W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are from 81W westward. Moderate seas are elsewhere from Jamaica southward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal areas of Sierra Leone, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W, to 04N30W 03N34W 01N40W 01N43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Strong to near gale-force northerly winds cover the Gulf of Mexico, from the western half of the NE corner, to nearly all of the western half of the area, including in the SW corner. Fresh to strong northerly winds cover the rest of the area. Rough to very rough seas are in the SW corner of the Gulf. Rough seas continue from the west central Gulf, toward the NE corner. Moderate to rough seas are in the east central sections. Moderate seas cover much of the SE area. The exception is for slight seas in the Straits of Florida. A cold front passes through central Florida, to the south central Gulf, to the SW corner just to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from the cold front eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from the cold front northward and northwestward. A cold front extends southwestward from Tampa, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong with locally near- gale force northerly winds and very rough seas will persist behind this front across much of Gulf tonight, except the southeastern Gulf. Starting Wed morning, winds and seas at the southeastern Gulf will become fresh to locally strong and rough, while conditions for the rest of the Gulf will improve quickly. The front will exit the Gulf late tonight into Wed morning. Afterward, the next cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf late Thu and move southward across the basin through late Fri night into Sat morning, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas. Gale-force winds and rough seas are possible behind the front at the western Bay of Campeche Fri night and Sat afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the area. The tight gradient that is between the high pressure NE of the basin and Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri. Winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the nighttime and early morning hours from tonight through early Thu, and possibly Thu night. The same high will also cause fresh to strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N77W, to the eastern coast of Florida near 29N81W. Moderate seas are from 60W westward. Strong SW winds are within 150 nm to the east and the southeast of the cold front. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front, from the SE Gulf of Mexico northeastward. A surface ridge passes through 31N56W to Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward between 45W and 75W. A cold front passes through 31N38W, to 27N45W. A dissipating cold front passes through 31N14W, through the Canary Islands, to 26N21W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward from 50W eastward. Moderate to fresh NW winds are from 27N northward 20W and 30W. Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere from 18N northward from 40W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from the ITCZ to 19N between 25W and 40W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 12N to 21N between 53W and 62W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 20N southward between 35W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough seas are from 15N northward from 40W eastward, and from 20N southward between 30W and 60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front reaches from 31N77W to Port Canaveral, Florida. It will move eastward and extend from 31N71W to the northwest Bahamas and western Cuba on Wed morning, then from 31N56W to the central Bahamas on Thu morning and finally becoming nearly stationary. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas behind this front north of 27N will shift eastward across the western Atlantic through Wed. High pressure building east of the front is going to keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands most of the week. $$ mt/pc