000 AXNT20 KNHC 161259 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jan 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front stretches from the Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 150 nm northwest of the front. Strong to gale-force N winds and very rough seas are occurring behind this front across the northwestern Gulf, and will shift southward into the far west-central and southwestern Gulf this afternoon and early evening. Seas will peak from 11 to 14 ft under the strongest winds. As this front pushes farther southeastward into eastern Gulf tonight, both winds and seas across the western Gulf will steadily subside. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Tight gradient between a 1024 mb high over central Atlantic and the Colombian Low is causing fresh to strong easterly winds over the central basin. These winds off northwestern Colombia will gust frequently to gale-force until mid morning. Seas will range from 12 to 15 ft under the strongest winds. Afterward, sustained winds at this same location are going to reach gale-force during the nighttime and early morning hours, tonight and Wednesday night and possibly Thursday night. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone-Liberia border, stretches westward across 05N20W to 05N26W. An ITCZ continues from 05N26W across 02N36W to 03N41W. Widely scattered showers are occurring south of the trough from 01N to 05N between 10W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 60 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Pleas read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning. Other than the cold front and related weather mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present behind this front at the north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist ahead of the front in the eastern and south-central Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas following behind the cold front will reach the central Gulf this afternoon and eastern Gulf by early Wed morning. The front will exit the Gulf late tonight into Wed morning. Afterward, the next cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf late Thu and move southward across the basin through late Fri night into early Sat morning, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Pleas read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning. A 1024 mb high near 28N58W is sustaining a trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Basin. Convergent E to SE winds are triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off the western Cuba coast, and across the central and eastern basin. Outside the strong to gale winds and very rough seas mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to locally strong E winds and seas at 7 to 11 ft are evident for the north-central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, besides the fresh to strong winds and rough seas for the north-central and eastern basin, the 1024 mb high will also cause fresh to locally strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the Lesser Antilles through at least Fri. A cold front from the eastern Gulf of Mexico will stall over the Yucatan Channel late tonight and Wed, causing a period of fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough curves southwestward from 24N35W to 21N46W. Widely scattered showers and noted up to 50 nm along either side of this feature. A surface trough embedded with the trade-wind flow is triggering scattered showers east of the Windward Islands from 14N to 16N between 46W and 55W. The southwestern end of a cold front reaches westward from 31N43W to 29N55W. Patchy showers are occurring up to 40 nm along either side of this front. Convergent southerly winds south of a frontal boundary near the Georgia and South Carolina coast are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the northeastern Florida offshore waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh N to NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in moderate NE swell exist north of 20N between 35W and 60W. To the west, moderate to fresh SE to SSE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate from north of 25N between 60W and the Florida- Georgia coast. Fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found from 20N to 25N between 60W and the Bahamas. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in moderate N swell are present from 05N to 20N between 35W and 50W. Farther west, fresh to locally strong E winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are evident from 05N to 20N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, the frontal boundary from southeast of Bermuda to northern Florida has dissipated. A new cold front will exit off the Florida northeast coast later this morning, and reach from 31N71W to the northwest Bahamas and western Cuba on Wed morning. It will be from 31N56W to the central Bahamas on Thu morning then becoming nearly stationary. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas behind this front will shift eastward across 27N through Wed. High pressure building E of the front is going to keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands most of this week. $$ Chan