000 AXNT20 KNHC 151138 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jan 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: Subsiding NW swell will remain large enough to sustain 12 to 15 ft seas north of 23N between 35W and 44W this morning. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are also found within this area. This swell is going to subside further this afternoon, and allow seas to drop below 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A cold front reaches southwestward from near New Orleans, Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas. It will gradually push southeastward across the Gulf through Tue night. Northerly winds behind it will reach strong to gale force over the west-central and southwestern Gulf Tue and Tue night. Once this front has moved southeast of the region on Wed, both winds and seas will steadily subside. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Sierra Leone coast, then extends west-southwestward to 05N26W. An ITCZ continues from 05N26W across 04N35W to north of Belem, Brazil at 01N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 01N to 06N between 10W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and up to 140 nm north of the ITCZ west of 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning. A weak warm front runs westward from the Great Bahama Bank across the southeastern Gulf. Patchy showers are found near and up to 120 nm north of this feature. Meanwhile, a cold front reaches southwestward from a 1017 mb low over New Orleans, Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas. Widely scattered showers are present across the northwestern Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate waters behind this cold front. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will gradually push southeastward across the Gulf through Tue night. A weak low pressure will form along this front over the central Gulf, and track northeastward. In response, strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas will follow this frontal system across the Gulf late tonight through Wed. Winds will reach gale force over the far west-central and southwestern Gulf along the coast of Mexico Tue and Tue night. Looking ahead, another front will enter the northern Gulf Fri and move southward across the Gulf through late Fri night into early Sat morning, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1022 mb high to the northeast near 28N61W will continue to support a trade-wind regime across much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trade winds are triggering widely scattered showers from the northwestern basin across the Cayman Islands and Jamaica to the eastern basin. Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted for the north-central basin, including near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist at the northwestern basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, the 1022 mb high will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central and eastern basins from tonight through Fri. These winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to near-gale force during the nights, possibly reaching gale-force Wed night. This same high will also cause fresh to locally strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the Lesser Antilles through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about Significant Swell in the eastern Atlantic. A stationary front reaches southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N64W to the Great Bahama Bank. Patchy showers are found near and up to 140 nm northwest of this boundary. A cold front curves southwestward from near the Azores across 31N25W to 19N56W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and up to 80 nm east of this front east of 30W. West of 30W, widely scattered showers are seen near and up to 50 nm south of this front. Farther east, a stationary front runs southward from near Madeira across the Canary Islands to 22N24W. Patchy rain are present up to 80 nm along either side of this feature. In addition, strong mid to upper-level winds are streaming thick cirrus across the eastern Atlantic from the Cabo Verde Islands northeastward to beyond the Canary Islands. Convergent trade winds are generating widely scattered showers east of the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Significant Swell area mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh NW to N winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are evident from 20N to 23N between 35W and 45W, and also north of 23N between 45W and 52W. To the west, gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate mixed swells are noted north of 24N between 52W and 75W, and also across the northeast Florida offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh E to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist across the Bahamas, and north of the Greater Antilles. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N/23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh N to ENE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell prevails. For the forecast, the portion of the aforementioned stationary front north of 27N will resume moving eastward as a cold front. High pressure building southeast of Bermuda is going to keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands most of this week. Meanwhile, another front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue, and reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Wed, causing winds and seas to build north of 27N and east 75W. $$ Chan